White 趋势交易
Open Trade
Frequent Trader
4 Years
全平台统一号 @ixix_white 有疑问可聊天室留言，ID: 99678816 ，专注趋势交易，日常活跃在广场，推特，频道等
48 Following
1.7K+ Followers
1.6K+ Liked
75 Shared
See original
4/29 43125367729 Market Analysis
Recently, the market has been fluctuating up and down, primarily characterized by high-level oscillations without a clear trend. If one chases prices up and down, it is easy to incur frequent stop losses.
Yesterday morning, the price broke below 93,000, and then rebounded continuously, creating a false breakdown, rising above 95,000. Many people chased the price and entered the market, only to be played again by the main force, as it dropped back down to the 93 range, with both longs and shorts being caught by the main force.
The current major trend is still upward, with the structure primarily characterized by high-level oscillations. Overall, the rise is without volume, while the decline has volume. In terms of momentum, there is a continuous divergence, making it unwise to chase prices upward.
In terms of operational thinking, short-term focus should be on high levels, entering shorts near 95, with a target set around 93. If the 4-hour level can close around 95,300, then exit. The overall risk-reward ratio and safety are relatively good.
Recently, the market has been fluctuating up and down, primarily characterized by high-level oscillations without a clear trend. If one chases prices up and down, it is easy to incur frequent stop losses.
Yesterday morning, the price broke below 93,000, and then rebounded continuously, creating a false breakdown, rising above 95,000. Many people chased the price and entered the market, only to be played again by the main force, as it dropped back down to the 93 range, with both longs and shorts being caught by the main force.
The current major trend is still upward, with the structure primarily characterized by high-level oscillations. Overall, the rise is without volume, while the decline has volume. In terms of momentum, there is a continuous divergence, making it unwise to chase prices upward.
In terms of operational thinking, short-term focus should be on high levels, entering shorts near 95, with a target set around 93. If the 4-hour level can close around 95,300, then exit. The overall risk-reward ratio and safety are relatively good.
See original
$BTC Bitcoin Short-Term Trend Analysis
After a morning surge to 94000, it quickly fell back. This rebound is overall weak, with insufficient momentum and volume. The market feedback shows a trend of low volume and stagnation, so one should not easily chase the rise.
In the short-term trend, after the 30-minute level closes, it shows weakness, with expectations of a top structure. From the perspective of the Chande theory, there is an expectation of forming a second sell at the current position. After the closing, I entered a short position based on the signals given by the market. If it can break through the new high and stabilize at the 4-hour level, I will abandon the shorting strategy.
In the medium-term trend, there is strong support around 88000. Currently, the overall market sentiment and external environment are gradually improving, and there is not much expectation of a significant one-day drop. The focus is on a fluctuating perspective, overall high selling and low buying, and one should not chase the rise or kill the dip.
Intraday Operation Strategy
Focus on short positions, already laid out shorts at high levels, pay attention to the further trend of the market, with expectations for the downside at 92000-92500.
After a morning surge to 94000, it quickly fell back. This rebound is overall weak, with insufficient momentum and volume. The market feedback shows a trend of low volume and stagnation, so one should not easily chase the rise.
In the short-term trend, after the 30-minute level closes, it shows weakness, with expectations of a top structure. From the perspective of the Chande theory, there is an expectation of forming a second sell at the current position. After the closing, I entered a short position based on the signals given by the market. If it can break through the new high and stabilize at the 4-hour level, I will abandon the shorting strategy.
In the medium-term trend, there is strong support around 88000. Currently, the overall market sentiment and external environment are gradually improving, and there is not much expectation of a significant one-day drop. The focus is on a fluctuating perspective, overall high selling and low buying, and one should not chase the rise or kill the dip.
Intraday Operation Strategy
Focus on short positions, already laid out shorts at high levels, pay attention to the further trend of the market, with expectations for the downside at 92000-92500.
See original
【BTC Market Analysis: Medium-term Trend Reversal, Short-term Strength Followed by Adjustment Window】
From the trend perspective:
1. The current BTC price has broken through the platform oscillation range, starting from the 87K level on a 4-hour timeframe, forming a rapid upward main rising segment. This wave of rise has sufficient momentum, and the price has moved far away from the previous central structure, with a clear short-term bullish trend.
2. However, it is necessary to be cautious as the large-scale trend has not completely reversed, and the long cycle is still in an adjustment structure. The current rise belongs to the main rising segment within the 4-hour rebound cycle, and is still positioned as a medium-level rebound market, rather than a complete reversal at the trend level.
From the structural perspective:
1. The medium-term trend has turned upward from the sideways oscillation, and the moving average system has confirmed the reversal;
2. Short-term prices have moved far away from the central axis, and there is a technical need for a pullback;
3. The upper edge of the previous platform at the 87K area has shifted from a resistance level to a support level, which is a key position for the long and short game.
Strategy Recommendations:
1. At the current stage, it is not advisable to blindly chase highs; wait for the price to pull back to the 87K-88K range and observe whether a new central area or consolidation confirmation signal is formed;
2. If a short-term top structure is formed at a high level (around 93,000), consider lightly shorting in the short term, with the target looking at the pullback confirmation support area;
3. If signs of stabilization appear during the pullback, it is an ideal time to re-enter with low bids, suitable for gradually laying out subsequent medium-term long positions;
If the 87K level cannot be maintained subsequently, one should cautiously view the sustainability of this round of rebound and wait for clearer signals before participating.
From the trend perspective:
1. The current BTC price has broken through the platform oscillation range, starting from the 87K level on a 4-hour timeframe, forming a rapid upward main rising segment. This wave of rise has sufficient momentum, and the price has moved far away from the previous central structure, with a clear short-term bullish trend.
2. However, it is necessary to be cautious as the large-scale trend has not completely reversed, and the long cycle is still in an adjustment structure. The current rise belongs to the main rising segment within the 4-hour rebound cycle, and is still positioned as a medium-level rebound market, rather than a complete reversal at the trend level.
From the structural perspective:
1. The medium-term trend has turned upward from the sideways oscillation, and the moving average system has confirmed the reversal;
2. Short-term prices have moved far away from the central axis, and there is a technical need for a pullback;
3. The upper edge of the previous platform at the 87K area has shifted from a resistance level to a support level, which is a key position for the long and short game.
Strategy Recommendations:
1. At the current stage, it is not advisable to blindly chase highs; wait for the price to pull back to the 87K-88K range and observe whether a new central area or consolidation confirmation signal is formed;
2. If a short-term top structure is formed at a high level (around 93,000), consider lightly shorting in the short term, with the target looking at the pullback confirmation support area;
3. If signs of stabilization appear during the pullback, it is an ideal time to re-enter with low bids, suitable for gradually laying out subsequent medium-term long positions;
If the 87K level cannot be maintained subsequently, one should cautiously view the sustainability of this round of rebound and wait for clearer signals before participating.
See original
Expectation of future trends for 47086188024
Reviewing our previous expectations, if 83000 holds, the target of 88000 has been reached. The current position is near the previous high, and most profit-taking is happening here. We need to consider whether the main force is strong enough, and there are two expectations going forward.
If the trend continues to strengthen and 86000 holds on a pullback, breaking through 88000 again, the next targets would be 93000 and 95000.
Another scenario is confirming the current high point, where after a pullback, a rebound does not break the new high, leading to a test of support around 85000.
In terms of operation strategy, do not chase highs or kill lows; wait for a stable pullback before laying out long positions, and further decide whether to hold based on the strength of the trend.
Reviewing our previous expectations, if 83000 holds, the target of 88000 has been reached. The current position is near the previous high, and most profit-taking is happening here. We need to consider whether the main force is strong enough, and there are two expectations going forward.
If the trend continues to strengthen and 86000 holds on a pullback, breaking through 88000 again, the next targets would be 93000 and 95000.
Another scenario is confirming the current high point, where after a pullback, a rebound does not break the new high, leading to a test of support around 85000.
In terms of operation strategy, do not chase highs or kill lows; wait for a stable pullback before laying out long positions, and further decide whether to hold based on the strength of the trend.
See original
The daily Bitcoin price follows the rebound of US stock futures. Currently, the short-term EMA12 has turned upwards again. It is not advisable to short easily unless it breaks below 83000.
The trading volume during the day is relatively small, mainly fluctuating, with overall operations focusing on buying low and selling high. Unless it stabilizes at key levels, if the 4-hour level can close above 85000, we can continue to be bullish.
The impact of yesterday's news has basically dissipated, returning to the original market trend. The focus of Bitcoin is rising. If a significant upward move occurs, we can follow $BTC $ETH $SOL
#鲍威尔发言 #币安投票下币 #加拿大推出SolanaETF
The trading volume during the day is relatively small, mainly fluctuating, with overall operations focusing on buying low and selling high. Unless it stabilizes at key levels, if the 4-hour level can close above 85000, we can continue to be bullish.
The impact of yesterday's news has basically dissipated, returning to the original market trend. The focus of Bitcoin is rising. If a significant upward move occurs, we can follow $BTC $ETH $SOL
#鲍威尔发言 #币安投票下币 #加拿大推出SolanaETF
See original
$BTC Trend Analysis
Last night, stimulated by news, there were sharp fluctuations, ultimately closing above 84000. The overall focus is rising, and the trend is slightly stronger than the US stock market.
Overall approach: as long as the support at 83000 remains effective and has not been breached, be cautious about taking short positions. If there are signs of upward breakthroughs in smaller time frames, combined with volume and momentum, one can follow with a stop loss.
During the day, pay close attention to 84200. If it closes above this level on the 4-hour chart, the trend has not been broken. A strong bullish candle is needed to ignite the market and initiate the trend.
In terms of operations, if a strong trend can develop during the day, one can follow it. If it continues to fluctuate, there will be no room for operations $BTC $ETH
Last night, stimulated by news, there were sharp fluctuations, ultimately closing above 84000. The overall focus is rising, and the trend is slightly stronger than the US stock market.
Overall approach: as long as the support at 83000 remains effective and has not been breached, be cautious about taking short positions. If there are signs of upward breakthroughs in smaller time frames, combined with volume and momentum, one can follow with a stop loss.
During the day, pay close attention to 84200. If it closes above this level on the 4-hour chart, the trend has not been broken. A strong bullish candle is needed to ignite the market and initiate the trend.
In terms of operations, if a strong trend can develop during the day, one can follow it. If it continues to fluctuate, there will be no room for operations $BTC $ETH
See original
The current trend of Bitcoin $BTC is stable. With the market sentiment recovering, Bitcoin has shown a steadier trend than U.S. stocks. If U.S. stocks can continue to rebound in the evening, Bitcoin is expected to test 89000.
Currently, continue to hold Bitcoin long positions, with the first target at 88000. Pay attention to the resistance situation at 89000 for further adjustments.
Go! $ETH $XRP
#比特币与美国关税政策 #币安Alpha上新 #美国半导体关税
Currently, continue to hold Bitcoin long positions, with the first target at 88000. Pay attention to the resistance situation at 89000 for further adjustments.
Go! $ETH $XRP
#比特币与美国关税政策 #币安Alpha上新 #美国半导体关税
See original
31954976603 Trend Analysis and Market Expectations
Currently, the four-hour level has shown an upward trend. If the support at 83000 continues to be effective, the next expectation is at 88000. A breakthrough at 88000 is expected to test 95000 within this month.
In terms of structural patterns, the lower four-hour level has formed a double bottom, successfully retracing to the neck line. Subsequently, it broke through to 86000, indicating a healthy overall trend. Yesterday, it retraced to 83000 without breaking it, making 83000 a critical point for bulls and bears. If it effectively breaks below 83000, the rebound will end, and it will continue to turn downward; conversely, the next step will continue to rise. Bears must wait for a break below 83000 to enter the market, while bulls should also keep their defensive line below 83000.
In terms of market sentiment, after the implementation of US tariffs, the level of market panic has weakened. In the past two days, the overall strength of altcoins indicates that capital is entering the market, which is favorable for an upward movement.
In terms of policy, Trump may announce tariff exemption policies in the evening. If the tariff issue can be resolved gently, US stocks will strengthen further, and the cryptocurrency market will continue to rise. Currently, from US stock futures, it is likely that US stocks will continue to strengthen in the evening, which is beneficial for a rebound in the cryptocurrency market.
In terms of operations, currently holding long positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL. In a fluctuating market, the bullish strategy should only hold Bitcoin. Recently, altcoins have slightly strengthened, allowing for increased positions in two core altcoins. If the four-hour level breaks below 83000, then exit and wait.
Currently, the four-hour level has shown an upward trend. If the support at 83000 continues to be effective, the next expectation is at 88000. A breakthrough at 88000 is expected to test 95000 within this month.
In terms of structural patterns, the lower four-hour level has formed a double bottom, successfully retracing to the neck line. Subsequently, it broke through to 86000, indicating a healthy overall trend. Yesterday, it retraced to 83000 without breaking it, making 83000 a critical point for bulls and bears. If it effectively breaks below 83000, the rebound will end, and it will continue to turn downward; conversely, the next step will continue to rise. Bears must wait for a break below 83000 to enter the market, while bulls should also keep their defensive line below 83000.
In terms of market sentiment, after the implementation of US tariffs, the level of market panic has weakened. In the past two days, the overall strength of altcoins indicates that capital is entering the market, which is favorable for an upward movement.
In terms of policy, Trump may announce tariff exemption policies in the evening. If the tariff issue can be resolved gently, US stocks will strengthen further, and the cryptocurrency market will continue to rise. Currently, from US stock futures, it is likely that US stocks will continue to strengthen in the evening, which is beneficial for a rebound in the cryptocurrency market.
In terms of operations, currently holding long positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL. In a fluctuating market, the bullish strategy should only hold Bitcoin. Recently, altcoins have slightly strengthened, allowing for increased positions in two core altcoins. If the four-hour level breaks below 83000, then exit and wait.
See original
$BTC Trend Analysis
Stabilizing at 85000, the next target is 88000. The trend has already reversed, previously breaking above 83000 led to chasing long positions.
Above 83000, we will temporarily abandon short positions and only consider low longs or going long on a stable breakout.
#美国半导体关税 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC
Stabilizing at 85000, the next target is 88000. The trend has already reversed, previously breaking above 83000 led to chasing long positions.
Above 83000, we will temporarily abandon short positions and only consider low longs or going long on a stable breakout.
#美国半导体关税 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC
See original
$BTC The market continued to weaken last night, following the decline in U.S. stocks, so we did not enter the market, as there were no good entry points during the fluctuations or gradual declines.
After hitting support near 78000 in the early morning, it began to stabilize. Last night, we placed a long position at 79000, and our profit has now exceeded 2000 points. We have reduced our position and set a breakeven point, and we will pay attention to the resistance at 82000 going forward.
After hitting support near 78000 in the early morning, it began to stabilize. Last night, we placed a long position at 79000, and our profit has now exceeded 2000 points. We have reduced our position and set a breakeven point, and we will pay attention to the resistance at 82000 going forward.
See original
$BTC The pancake short line has emerged from the bottom structure, and a long position can be entered.
See original
# Chan Theory Small Capital Three Pattern Trading System
## Pattern Overview
- Pattern One, Two: Follow Small Trend (30 minutes), light position short trades, pursue certainty;
- Pattern Three: Follow Big Trend (4 hours), heavy position main attack.
## Pattern One: Follow Big Trend, Small Structure Entry (20% Capital)
- 4-hour defines the trend, only perform trend-following operations on 30 minutes;
- Do not buy against the trend initially, prioritize second buy and third buy;
- High win rate points in small timeframes, take small segments, quick in and out;
- Take divergence rebounds, gradually take profit without greed.
## Pattern Two: Pen Central Departure and Pullback Confirmation (20% Capital)
- Only perform the first confirmation after a breakout, do not get entangled within the central zone;
- 30-minute central zone consists of 3-5 strokes;
- Clearly leave, wait for the pullback to show structure before entering;
- Set stop loss at the lower edge of the central zone or the low of the pullback stroke;
- Combine volume-price and SAR for judgment;
- If no pullback, observe if the second stroke makes a new high strongly before deciding whether to chase.
## Pattern Three: 4-Hour Third Buy Heavy Entry (80% Capital)
- 4-hour level divergence or third buy determines the main trend;
- Find precise entry on 30 minutes (second buy, third buy);
- Confirm support during pullbacks before entering, hold for the medium to long term.
## Operation Logic
- Pattern One: Trend judgment using EMA/SAR or double 30-minute central zones; wait for false breakouts or true breakouts within the central zone;
- Pattern Two: Focus only on breakout/breakdown of pen central zones, high win rate with trend resonance;
- Pattern Three: Use 4-hour to identify trends, use 30-minute to enter.
## Pullback End Judgment
- Key price level breakout confirmation: pullback high (long)/low (short);
- Auxiliary signals: small double bottom/central zone, small timeframe SAR reversal, expansion, candlestick reversal, engulfing, MACD divergence, breakout resistance;
- During 30-minute operations, can look at 5-minute structural details.
## Position and Capital Management
- Pattern Three 80%, Pattern One/Two each 10%-25%;
- Divide into 5 positions, each position can lose 5-10% of capital;
- After profit, still divide into 5 positions for rolling;
- Profit-loss ratio at least 3:1, small capital relies on position division and compound rolling to grow.
## Exit Strategy
- Pattern One/Two: Exit if the structure of 9 cycles is not completed; set stop loss at the top of the central zone or the bottom of the pullback, offset 100-200 points to prevent spike;
- Set breakeven at 1000 points profit, start reducing positions at 2000 points;
- Pattern Three: If it falls back to the previous central zone, consider it a failure, take profit as the trend ends.
## Response to Breakout Without Pullback
- Second stroke new high strong: large body, sufficient volume, no divergence → can chase;
- If in a sideways range: wait and see $BTC .
## Pattern Overview
- Pattern One, Two: Follow Small Trend (30 minutes), light position short trades, pursue certainty;
- Pattern Three: Follow Big Trend (4 hours), heavy position main attack.
## Pattern One: Follow Big Trend, Small Structure Entry (20% Capital)
- 4-hour defines the trend, only perform trend-following operations on 30 minutes;
- Do not buy against the trend initially, prioritize second buy and third buy;
- High win rate points in small timeframes, take small segments, quick in and out;
- Take divergence rebounds, gradually take profit without greed.
## Pattern Two: Pen Central Departure and Pullback Confirmation (20% Capital)
- Only perform the first confirmation after a breakout, do not get entangled within the central zone;
- 30-minute central zone consists of 3-5 strokes;
- Clearly leave, wait for the pullback to show structure before entering;
- Set stop loss at the lower edge of the central zone or the low of the pullback stroke;
- Combine volume-price and SAR for judgment;
- If no pullback, observe if the second stroke makes a new high strongly before deciding whether to chase.
## Pattern Three: 4-Hour Third Buy Heavy Entry (80% Capital)
- 4-hour level divergence or third buy determines the main trend;
- Find precise entry on 30 minutes (second buy, third buy);
- Confirm support during pullbacks before entering, hold for the medium to long term.
## Operation Logic
- Pattern One: Trend judgment using EMA/SAR or double 30-minute central zones; wait for false breakouts or true breakouts within the central zone;
- Pattern Two: Focus only on breakout/breakdown of pen central zones, high win rate with trend resonance;
- Pattern Three: Use 4-hour to identify trends, use 30-minute to enter.
## Pullback End Judgment
- Key price level breakout confirmation: pullback high (long)/low (short);
- Auxiliary signals: small double bottom/central zone, small timeframe SAR reversal, expansion, candlestick reversal, engulfing, MACD divergence, breakout resistance;
- During 30-minute operations, can look at 5-minute structural details.
## Position and Capital Management
- Pattern Three 80%, Pattern One/Two each 10%-25%;
- Divide into 5 positions, each position can lose 5-10% of capital;
- After profit, still divide into 5 positions for rolling;
- Profit-loss ratio at least 3:1, small capital relies on position division and compound rolling to grow.
## Exit Strategy
- Pattern One/Two: Exit if the structure of 9 cycles is not completed; set stop loss at the top of the central zone or the bottom of the pullback, offset 100-200 points to prevent spike;
- Set breakeven at 1000 points profit, start reducing positions at 2000 points;
- Pattern Three: If it falls back to the previous central zone, consider it a failure, take profit as the trend ends.
## Response to Breakout Without Pullback
- Second stroke new high strong: large body, sufficient volume, no divergence → can chase;
- If in a sideways range: wait and see $BTC .
See original
89444274462 Rational Analysis
After Bitcoin broke below the previous low of 76660, there is now a vacuum zone below, with no dense areas in the short to medium term, leading many people to see prices starting with 6 or 5. In reality, apart from institutional holdings being at a relatively low price, both whales and retail investors are currently in a state of loss. Long-term holdings do not constitute selling pressure, while short-term trapped positions are above 81000. Additionally, the bullish liquidity has been completely cleared, and continuing to sell off is equivalent to cutting losses.
At the current position, it is more about seeking opportunities rather than excessive panic; such opportunities are rare. The last time there was a sense of this vacuum zone was in September 2023, and subsequently, over the next three months, Bitcoin doubled to reach 50,000.
Currently, due to the lack of an independent narrative, Bitcoin is similar to the tech sector of the US stock market. Whether it can rise in the short term depends on the peaceful resolution of tariff issues, and in the medium term, on the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates. Overall, it follows the US stock market, and last week's performance was slightly stronger than that of the US stock market, indicating demand. Combined with the situation of Bitcoin itself, if the US stock market rebounds slightly, Bitcoin may quickly rebound above 80,000.
In specific operations, after breaking below 81000, the structure deteriorates. Currently, any bottom-fishing is against the trend, and the temptation to bottom-fish comes from high odds, but corresponds to a low win rate, making it difficult to catch the bottom in one go. Therefore, it is necessary to use some techniques to increase certainty.
For the medium to long term:
1. Choose core coins, with Bitcoin being the main one, along with the top market cap coins such as Ethereum, XRP, SOL, SUI, and also platform tokens like BNB and OKB.
2. Gradually allocate in the spot market, which is the most controllable way to operate with risk.
For the medium to short term:
The market has experienced a period of gradual decline followed by a sharp drop. Under normal circumstances, it is likely to be followed by consolidation. If consolidation occurs, pay attention to breakout and retest opportunities. Entry must wait for a strengthening pattern, such as the short-term moving averages turning up, capital inflow, and in the short term, it must be trend-following. At the same time, pay attention to position control and strict hard stop-loss, with single capital not exceeding 8%.
After Bitcoin broke below the previous low of 76660, there is now a vacuum zone below, with no dense areas in the short to medium term, leading many people to see prices starting with 6 or 5. In reality, apart from institutional holdings being at a relatively low price, both whales and retail investors are currently in a state of loss. Long-term holdings do not constitute selling pressure, while short-term trapped positions are above 81000. Additionally, the bullish liquidity has been completely cleared, and continuing to sell off is equivalent to cutting losses.
At the current position, it is more about seeking opportunities rather than excessive panic; such opportunities are rare. The last time there was a sense of this vacuum zone was in September 2023, and subsequently, over the next three months, Bitcoin doubled to reach 50,000.
Currently, due to the lack of an independent narrative, Bitcoin is similar to the tech sector of the US stock market. Whether it can rise in the short term depends on the peaceful resolution of tariff issues, and in the medium term, on the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates. Overall, it follows the US stock market, and last week's performance was slightly stronger than that of the US stock market, indicating demand. Combined with the situation of Bitcoin itself, if the US stock market rebounds slightly, Bitcoin may quickly rebound above 80,000.
In specific operations, after breaking below 81000, the structure deteriorates. Currently, any bottom-fishing is against the trend, and the temptation to bottom-fish comes from high odds, but corresponds to a low win rate, making it difficult to catch the bottom in one go. Therefore, it is necessary to use some techniques to increase certainty.
For the medium to long term:
1. Choose core coins, with Bitcoin being the main one, along with the top market cap coins such as Ethereum, XRP, SOL, SUI, and also platform tokens like BNB and OKB.
2. Gradually allocate in the spot market, which is the most controllable way to operate with risk.
For the medium to short term:
The market has experienced a period of gradual decline followed by a sharp drop. Under normal circumstances, it is likely to be followed by consolidation. If consolidation occurs, pay attention to breakout and retest opportunities. Entry must wait for a strengthening pattern, such as the short-term moving averages turning up, capital inflow, and in the short term, it must be trend-following. At the same time, pay attention to position control and strict hard stop-loss, with single capital not exceeding 8%.
See original
$BTC $BTC Short-term Trend Analysis
As tariffs are about to be implemented, U.S. stocks rebounded after hitting a low yesterday, marking two consecutive positive days. Currently, there is no independent narrative in the cryptocurrency market, and there are no new breakthroughs in the fundamentals. Therefore, it remains a small market following the larger market. Both trading volume and market sentiment are sluggish. It can be confirmed that after the tariffs take effect, short-term negative factors will be exhausted, and U.S. stocks will also have a demand for a rebound. We can expect a rebound similar to that of U.S. stocks, but a reversal requires an independent narrative in the cryptocurrency market, as well as a profit effect and market sentiment.
In terms of trends, the current situation is relatively positive. After quickly recovering from a drop below 84000, the 84000 level is now a medium-term support that both bulls and bears will compete for. If the 84000 support holds, this rebound could at least see 87000. If it fails to hold, we will pay attention to the support at 82000. A further drop below 82000 could directly break below 80000. This rebound is particularly important for the bulls.
On the daily level, there is an expectation of a head-and-shoulders bottom. In the future, whether it reaches a new high or forms a secondary high, there will be a demand for a rebound. Only if it can break above 90000 and stabilize could there be a reversal. The current market situation should not be overly interpreted.
In terms of operations, there is currently a demand emerging below. A natural pullback during the day is a normal correction. The 84000 level is a key entry point for bulls, with risk control set around 82000 and a target near 87000.
As tariffs are about to be implemented, U.S. stocks rebounded after hitting a low yesterday, marking two consecutive positive days. Currently, there is no independent narrative in the cryptocurrency market, and there are no new breakthroughs in the fundamentals. Therefore, it remains a small market following the larger market. Both trading volume and market sentiment are sluggish. It can be confirmed that after the tariffs take effect, short-term negative factors will be exhausted, and U.S. stocks will also have a demand for a rebound. We can expect a rebound similar to that of U.S. stocks, but a reversal requires an independent narrative in the cryptocurrency market, as well as a profit effect and market sentiment.
In terms of trends, the current situation is relatively positive. After quickly recovering from a drop below 84000, the 84000 level is now a medium-term support that both bulls and bears will compete for. If the 84000 support holds, this rebound could at least see 87000. If it fails to hold, we will pay attention to the support at 82000. A further drop below 82000 could directly break below 80000. This rebound is particularly important for the bulls.
On the daily level, there is an expectation of a head-and-shoulders bottom. In the future, whether it reaches a new high or forms a secondary high, there will be a demand for a rebound. Only if it can break above 90000 and stabilize could there be a reversal. The current market situation should not be overly interpreted.
In terms of operations, there is currently a demand emerging below. A natural pullback during the day is a normal correction. The 84000 level is a key entry point for bulls, with risk control set around 82000 and a target near 87000.
See original
Good morning everyone~ This is White, here is the morning analysis for today
1. The Bitcoin market opened lower yesterday and then rebounded with the U.S. stock market, reaching a peak of 91000 in the morning before pulling back. Currently, the bulls are making another push to break through 91000, and the short-term resistance has been broken. The subsequent expectation is to see around 93000-94000. The selling pressure above requires significant volume absorption. It is advisable to reduce some positions for safety.
The daily level shows a strong recovery, returning to the consolidation range, which can be understood as a false breakdown at the daily level. There is still hope for the bull trend to continue.
2. The altcoin has been relatively weak in recent days, and this rebound is weaker compared to Bitcoin. The market is generally revolving around Bitcoin, with Ethereum's narrative focusing on the upgrade in April. Currently, the exchange rate has reached a low point, and the main players may be creating momentum in advance. If the altcoin strengthens, it may lead the altcoins to a wave of altcoin season. If there is a pullback, it could be an opportunity to build medium to long-term bullish positions, with an expected increase of over 30%.
3. On Friday, watch the U.S. non-farm payroll data, which is expected to meet or even exceed expectations, potentially leading the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market to strengthen.
4. Cryptocurrency summit, with favorable policies. We have already positioned ourselves in related tokens at low levels and can hold them for the medium to long term. After the favorable policies are implemented, it would be appropriate to take some profits for safety, and be cautious about the favorable turning into unfavorable conditions. The specific operational strategy will be determined based on the market trends at that time.
1. The Bitcoin market opened lower yesterday and then rebounded with the U.S. stock market, reaching a peak of 91000 in the morning before pulling back. Currently, the bulls are making another push to break through 91000, and the short-term resistance has been broken. The subsequent expectation is to see around 93000-94000. The selling pressure above requires significant volume absorption. It is advisable to reduce some positions for safety.
The daily level shows a strong recovery, returning to the consolidation range, which can be understood as a false breakdown at the daily level. There is still hope for the bull trend to continue.
2. The altcoin has been relatively weak in recent days, and this rebound is weaker compared to Bitcoin. The market is generally revolving around Bitcoin, with Ethereum's narrative focusing on the upgrade in April. Currently, the exchange rate has reached a low point, and the main players may be creating momentum in advance. If the altcoin strengthens, it may lead the altcoins to a wave of altcoin season. If there is a pullback, it could be an opportunity to build medium to long-term bullish positions, with an expected increase of over 30%.
3. On Friday, watch the U.S. non-farm payroll data, which is expected to meet or even exceed expectations, potentially leading the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market to strengthen.
4. Cryptocurrency summit, with favorable policies. We have already positioned ourselves in related tokens at low levels and can hold them for the medium to long term. After the favorable policies are implemented, it would be appropriate to take some profits for safety, and be cautious about the favorable turning into unfavorable conditions. The specific operational strategy will be determined based on the market trends at that time.
See original
$BTC Bitcoin Short-term Analysis
Yesterday, our medium-term analysis provided a strategy to set up long positions in the 84000-85000 range, with a maximum profit of 10000 points. We have previously analyzed from the perspectives of policy, fundamentals, and market sentiment, and 2025 is expected to be a year of great opportunities. Yesterday, Trump provided significant positive news, boosting market confidence. So how should we operate today?
Yesterday, we mentioned that major resistance is around 90000, and a breakout has already occurred with increased volume. From a technical perspective, if we have a pullback today that does not break 90000, then it will be a very good buying point. The overall strategy focuses on buying low, in addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, we can also pay attention to two other coins in the crypto reserves, SOL and XRP, which have already undergone a thorough correction.
Support below: 90000 88000
Resistance above: 93500 90000
Operational strategy: focus on buying low
Watch for a pullback around 90000-91000, where long positions can be set up. Tonight, as the US market opens, it is expected that Wall Street will chase the rise, continuing the upward trend.
#美国加密战略储备 #加密市场反弹 $BTC$ETH
Yesterday, our medium-term analysis provided a strategy to set up long positions in the 84000-85000 range, with a maximum profit of 10000 points. We have previously analyzed from the perspectives of policy, fundamentals, and market sentiment, and 2025 is expected to be a year of great opportunities. Yesterday, Trump provided significant positive news, boosting market confidence. So how should we operate today?
Yesterday, we mentioned that major resistance is around 90000, and a breakout has already occurred with increased volume. From a technical perspective, if we have a pullback today that does not break 90000, then it will be a very good buying point. The overall strategy focuses on buying low, in addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, we can also pay attention to two other coins in the crypto reserves, SOL and XRP, which have already undergone a thorough correction.
Support below: 90000 88000
Resistance above: 93500 90000
Operational strategy: focus on buying low
Watch for a pullback around 90000-91000, where long positions can be set up. Tonight, as the US market opens, it is expected that Wall Street will chase the rise, continuing the upward trend.
#美国加密战略储备 #加密市场反弹 $BTC$ETH
See original
$BTC Mid-term Trend Analysis
The recent decline of Bitcoin has fallen more than 20,000 points from around 100,000, directly killing all the bulls and pushing prices down to a point where no one dares to buy the dip. The main players have reclaimed their chips, and even more, because their selling is usually hedged with short positions. So, does this mean the bull market is over?
We analyzed from multiple perspectives when the price was at 80,000, and 2025 is expected to be a bull market year. This expectation will not change, but it is impossible to predict in the short term; we can only follow the market. From the daily chart, we saw a long wick, and altcoins no longer seem weak, indicating a potential short-term recovery.
Currently, there is significant resistance around 90,000, which has trapped many people, whether in spot or futures, leading to some selling pressure. Therefore, we can only view this wave as a rebound, with expected highs around 91,000 to 92,000. Next, we will observe whether 90,000 can hold as support before making the next decision.
In March, there will be a Federal Reserve meeting on March 19, which could be a turning point. My previous personal operation mentioned that I have laid out a mid-to-long-term grid strategy with Bitcoin and Ethereum, while in spot, I have only deployed Trump and DOGE, with expectations focused on March's performance and the resistance at 90,000.
Short-term Operations
Set long positions in the range of 84,000-85,000, with risk control set below 82,000, targeting around 89,000-90,000, with a risk-reward ratio exceeding 2, providing some operational space.
$ETH $XRP
#比特币价格走势分析 #CZ新代币模型设想 #白宫首届加密货币峰会
The recent decline of Bitcoin has fallen more than 20,000 points from around 100,000, directly killing all the bulls and pushing prices down to a point where no one dares to buy the dip. The main players have reclaimed their chips, and even more, because their selling is usually hedged with short positions. So, does this mean the bull market is over?
We analyzed from multiple perspectives when the price was at 80,000, and 2025 is expected to be a bull market year. This expectation will not change, but it is impossible to predict in the short term; we can only follow the market. From the daily chart, we saw a long wick, and altcoins no longer seem weak, indicating a potential short-term recovery.
Currently, there is significant resistance around 90,000, which has trapped many people, whether in spot or futures, leading to some selling pressure. Therefore, we can only view this wave as a rebound, with expected highs around 91,000 to 92,000. Next, we will observe whether 90,000 can hold as support before making the next decision.
In March, there will be a Federal Reserve meeting on March 19, which could be a turning point. My previous personal operation mentioned that I have laid out a mid-to-long-term grid strategy with Bitcoin and Ethereum, while in spot, I have only deployed Trump and DOGE, with expectations focused on March's performance and the resistance at 90,000.
Short-term Operations
Set long positions in the range of 84,000-85,000, with risk control set below 82,000, targeting around 89,000-90,000, with a risk-reward ratio exceeding 2, providing some operational space.
$ETH $XRP
#比特币价格走势分析 #CZ新代币模型设想 #白宫首届加密货币峰会
See original
Personal Operation:
Assuming 10wu entry, allocate in the ratio of 7:2:1 for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins respectively.
1. Bitcoin 7wu, purchase spot Bitcoin, then set up a 2x grid long position on a coin basis, with a range of 60k-110k, setting the grid to maximum. This means, under a maximum 2x leverage scenario, continuously buying the dip down to 60k, with the liquidation price at just over 30k.
2. Ethereum 2wu, purchase spot Ethereum, then set up a 1x long position on a coin basis.
3. For other altcoins, currently only considering purchasing Trump and DOGE, totaling 1wu, which can be spot or a 1x coin basis long position.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE
#美SEC：Meme币非证券 #美国加征关税
Assuming 10wu entry, allocate in the ratio of 7:2:1 for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins respectively.
1. Bitcoin 7wu, purchase spot Bitcoin, then set up a 2x grid long position on a coin basis, with a range of 60k-110k, setting the grid to maximum. This means, under a maximum 2x leverage scenario, continuously buying the dip down to 60k, with the liquidation price at just over 30k.
2. Ethereum 2wu, purchase spot Ethereum, then set up a 1x long position on a coin basis.
3. For other altcoins, currently only considering purchasing Trump and DOGE, totaling 1wu, which can be spot or a 1x coin basis long position.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE
#美SEC：Meme币非证券 #美国加征关税
See original
$BTC Can we still reach the other side this time? BTC 8W has broken, it's time to reclaim everything
Let's discuss the future expectations and personal operations from the perspectives of economic policy, fundamentals, market sentiment, certainty, and risk control, for reference
1. Economic Policy, 2025 can be confirmed as a year of monetary easing, the pace of easing depends on economic data, but does not affect the direction of easing. From a policy perspective, the overall trend is bullish. The most recent interest rate meeting was on 3.19, with an expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut. We mainly focus on the trend of the US dollar to judge the market direction
2. Fundamentals
In the cryptocurrency space, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have ETFs, increasing the audience of the market. However, US market players typically chase highs and sell on dips; during market panic, they tend to sell off. Currently, the outflows of Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF have begun to converge. As long as the market starts to warm up, this portion of funds will flow back in
Recently, there has been a continuous decline, but the market cap ratio of BTC has stopped rising, indicating that the majority of altcoins have no more room for squeezing. The price of Ethereum is a typical reflection of this, which gives altcoins a seasonal opportunity. If there is an altcoin season, it will definitely be led by Ethereum
3. Market Sentiment, with the continuous decline, the panic index once reached extreme panic. Judging from the reactions of major communities, it has gradually started to cool off. February has been a dismal month. Cultivate when no one is paying attention, and reap when the crowd is cheering. The main force can only hold chips during the decline; in the market, the bulls are always the main force. They hold so many chips and want to pump the price more than anyone else. They just need to continue reshuffling and collecting chips to make the price pump easier, ultimately cashing out. This logic applies to both altcoins and Bitcoin, so it will be pumped sooner or later
4. Certainty, the only valuable asset in this market is Bitcoin; other altcoins are just a game of funds controlled by the main force. So no matter how the market declines, do not put large amounts of money in altcoins. By then, Bitcoin may be at 150k, and altcoins may not return to their previous highs. The main position should be Bitcoin, secondary position Ethereum, and small positions in popular altcoins. This configuration is the most stable
5. Risk Control, according to the Kelly formula, with a risk-reward ratio of 2 to 1 and a win rate of 40%, it is recommended to use 10% of funds for a single trade. The core principle is to never go all-in; the market will not stop, opportunities will always exist, and risk should be prioritized.
Let's discuss the future expectations and personal operations from the perspectives of economic policy, fundamentals, market sentiment, certainty, and risk control, for reference
1. Economic Policy, 2025 can be confirmed as a year of monetary easing, the pace of easing depends on economic data, but does not affect the direction of easing. From a policy perspective, the overall trend is bullish. The most recent interest rate meeting was on 3.19, with an expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut. We mainly focus on the trend of the US dollar to judge the market direction
2. Fundamentals
In the cryptocurrency space, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have ETFs, increasing the audience of the market. However, US market players typically chase highs and sell on dips; during market panic, they tend to sell off. Currently, the outflows of Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF have begun to converge. As long as the market starts to warm up, this portion of funds will flow back in
Recently, there has been a continuous decline, but the market cap ratio of BTC has stopped rising, indicating that the majority of altcoins have no more room for squeezing. The price of Ethereum is a typical reflection of this, which gives altcoins a seasonal opportunity. If there is an altcoin season, it will definitely be led by Ethereum
3. Market Sentiment, with the continuous decline, the panic index once reached extreme panic. Judging from the reactions of major communities, it has gradually started to cool off. February has been a dismal month. Cultivate when no one is paying attention, and reap when the crowd is cheering. The main force can only hold chips during the decline; in the market, the bulls are always the main force. They hold so many chips and want to pump the price more than anyone else. They just need to continue reshuffling and collecting chips to make the price pump easier, ultimately cashing out. This logic applies to both altcoins and Bitcoin, so it will be pumped sooner or later
4. Certainty, the only valuable asset in this market is Bitcoin; other altcoins are just a game of funds controlled by the main force. So no matter how the market declines, do not put large amounts of money in altcoins. By then, Bitcoin may be at 150k, and altcoins may not return to their previous highs. The main position should be Bitcoin, secondary position Ethereum, and small positions in popular altcoins. This configuration is the most stable
5. Risk Control, according to the Kelly formula, with a risk-reward ratio of 2 to 1 and a win rate of 40%, it is recommended to use 10% of funds for a single trade. The core principle is to never go all-in; the market will not stop, opportunities will always exist, and risk should be prioritized.
See original
$ETH Mid-level Trend Analysis
This round of Ethereum decline did not break the previous low of 2100. Yesterday, while Bitcoin continued to drop, Ethereum followed up instead of down, indicating that supply has gradually weakened. Coupled with the high position of Ethereum's trapped positions, even a slight demand can lead to an increase.
From a structural perspective, this is a rebound after breaking through the central level. Currently, it is following Bitcoin's decline, but the degree of the drop is controllable. From the overall MACD momentum perspective, this wave of decline is basically over. Subsequently, it will either transition to a low-level consolidation or directly return to the central level for reorganization.
By comparing the two MACD momentum blocks before and after, it can be seen that the momentum of this decline has significantly weakened, forming a divergence. The central level has the same gravitational effect on the entering and exiting segments. Therefore, the end of this decline implies a high probability of returning to the box, with an expected rebound to 2600. Further judgments will be made based on resistance conditions.
Upper resistance 2530 2600
Lower support 2400 2300
In terms of operations
The overall market is unstable; for stability, it is advisable to focus on spot trading. The Prague upgrade in April is still worth anticipating.
For short-term trading, you can enter the market lightly near 2450 for bottom fishing, with risk control below 2400, targeting 2600.
$BTC $XRP $SOL #币安LaunchpoolRED #比特币价格走势分析 #美联储降息预期
This round of Ethereum decline did not break the previous low of 2100. Yesterday, while Bitcoin continued to drop, Ethereum followed up instead of down, indicating that supply has gradually weakened. Coupled with the high position of Ethereum's trapped positions, even a slight demand can lead to an increase.
From a structural perspective, this is a rebound after breaking through the central level. Currently, it is following Bitcoin's decline, but the degree of the drop is controllable. From the overall MACD momentum perspective, this wave of decline is basically over. Subsequently, it will either transition to a low-level consolidation or directly return to the central level for reorganization.
By comparing the two MACD momentum blocks before and after, it can be seen that the momentum of this decline has significantly weakened, forming a divergence. The central level has the same gravitational effect on the entering and exiting segments. Therefore, the end of this decline implies a high probability of returning to the box, with an expected rebound to 2600. Further judgments will be made based on resistance conditions.
Upper resistance 2530 2600
Lower support 2400 2300
In terms of operations
The overall market is unstable; for stability, it is advisable to focus on spot trading. The Prague upgrade in April is still worth anticipating.
For short-term trading, you can enter the market lightly near 2450 for bottom fishing, with risk control below 2400, targeting 2600.
$BTC $XRP $SOL #币安LaunchpoolRED #比特币价格走势分析 #美联储降息预期
Login to explore more contents