@BTC
Currently in a corrective range, which is a normal reaction to tariff impacts; however, there is no need to panic as we are still in a healthy correction phase of a bull market. However, Bitcoin is currently facing the possibility of EMA50 breaking below EMA200, forming a "death cross," which seems inevitable and may happen within a few weeks (of course, it would be better if it doesn't).
Key support to watch below is the strong area of $60,000 ~ $62,000. If it breaks this range and EMA50 crosses below EMA200, it could likely lead to a bear market. If there is a significant volume drop below key support, it indicates a clear intention from the main players to sell, and short selling will dominate. If it breaks without volume, it may be a false breakdown, shaking out weak hands before a rise.
If macro funds tighten (e.g., rising U.S. Treasury yields, the Federal Reserve refusing to lower interest rates), it will lead to significant outflows of on-chain funds, directly entering a bear market.
However, if ETF inflows continue and money has not dried up, it may just be a market correction, and there is still hope for a new high.
To summarize the key points:
EMA50 breaks below EMA200, and the price holds above 60K
Leaning towards a sideways retracement, it may just be a washout, and blind shorting is not recommended.
EMA50 breaks below EMA200, the price breaks below 60K with volume
This indicates a "dual break in technical and funding aspects," allowing for bearish operations, and even considering mid-term short positions.
EMA50 breaks below EMA200 but quickly recovers, forming a false cross
This is actually a strong signal and can be seen as the market's "final washout."
The most likely scenario currently is EMA50 breaking below EMA200, entering a weekly level consolidation for accumulation, then re-forming a golden cross to trigger a rise. Therefore, pay close attention to the price range when EMA50 breaks (breaking below 70,000 will be strong for consolidation; if it truly breaks down to above 60,000, watch for whether there is a volume breakthrough or breakdown).
$BTC Reminder: Currently, short on highs and do not go long on lows.
