This person, Old Powell, is actually a "master of expectation management." He sees that recent inflation expectations have risen again due to increased tariffs, and his professional background does not allow him to play dumb. Also, don't forget an important background: he is actually quite unhappy with Trump's style of casually intervening in the Fed and casually raising tariffs. He is now guarding not just the policy line, but also his position in history. After all, anyone doing this job wants to leave behind some evaluation of "how stable I was back in the day."

In last night's discussion, there were two particularly interesting details:

1. Old Powell said that the Fed cannot prevent a recession, it can only step in after a recession has arrived. But didn't he cut rates by 100 basis points in advance last year? Isn't that just slapping himself in the face?

2. Even funnier is that last night was not even an interest rate meeting; it was just his speech, and Trump couldn't help but urge for a rate cut on social media. The question is, if you don't hold a meeting first, who are you cutting rates for? The outcome of the game between the president and the Fed is already written — Trump will win because he is the president. Old Powell understands this too, but he just wants to hold on a bit longer, at least to leave himself a chance to exit with dignity.