#BTC Bitcoin is showing signs of decoupling from the trends of stocks and gold, especially after President Trump's global tariff announcement on April 2. While the S&P 500 dropped sharply by 10.65%, and gold fell from its peak of $3,167 to 4.8%, Bitcoin recovered over 4.5%, exceeding $84,700.
📈 "Gold leads, Bitcoin follows" – Does history repeat itself?
From late 2018 to mid-2019
Gold rose steadily by ~15%.
Then Bitcoin increased by 170% in early 2019, and rose another 344% by the end of 2020.
Analysis from MacroScope suggests:
"If BTC touches $100K again, it could mark the turning point from gold to Bitcoin — the beginning of a period where BTC significantly outperforms."
⚠️ But... the BTC/Gold ratio warns of a bull trap
The BTC/XAU ratio (BTC price divided by gold price) is repeating the 2021 pattern:
At that time, BTC dropped sharply after testing the 50-2W EMA (50-period moving average - 2 weeks) twice and broke down to a deeper low.
Currently:
This ratio is testing the 50-2W EMA once again.
If it continues to break down → BTC could fall to $65,000, even deeper if it tests the 200-2W EMA around $20,000.
A strong bounce from the 50-2W EMA could invalidate this bearish pattern, according to analysts.
🏦 Big risk: Recession and US interest rate policy
A new trade war sparked by Trump could push the US into recession, reducing confidence in risk assets like Bitcoin.
In addition:
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on April 4 stated that he is not ready to cut interest rates in the near future as inflation remains high.
= > This could cause BTC to lose momentum.
However, according to CME data:
Most of the bond market still expects 3 rate cuts from now until September.
✅ Summary: Will BTC continue to rise or is it on the edge of a correction?
✅ If $BTC it continues to decouple from gold and stocks, and repeats the historical pattern of 2019, $100K is entirely possible.
⚠️ But if the pattern $BTC /XAU repeats like in 2021, BTC could drop deep to $65K or lower.
❗ Everything still depends on the economic developments in the US: interest rates, recession, and Trump's policies.
📊 Which scenario do you lean towards more? Will BTC break $100K or correct to $65K before bouncing back?
