Powell warned that new tariffs could raise inflation and slow economic growth, which makes sense. From an economic perspective, tariffs are essentially a trade barrier that increases the cost of imported goods. These costs are often passed on to consumers, leading to higher prices, which is inflationary pressure. Furthermore, if other countries impose retaliatory tariffs on American goods, U.S. exports could be hindered, thereby dragging down economic growth. Powell mentioned these risks, indicating that he is concerned about the potential chain reaction of tariffs on the real economy, rather than merely theoretical speculation.

He also stated that the Federal Reserve would 'wait and see,' reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy. The primary responsibility of the Federal Reserve is to maintain price stability and promote employment. If tariffs lead to soaring inflation, the Federal Reserve might need to raise interest rates to cool down the economy; but if economic growth slows, it may need to cut rates to stimulate the economy. These two possibilities make the policy outlook 'highly uncertain,' as Powell said. Therefore, his choice to wait and see might be an attempt to wait for more data to come out, avoiding premature actions that could cause market turmoil.

The phrase 'beyond expectations' is quite interesting. Trump's tariff policy may be more aggressive in scale or scope than the Federal Reserve anticipated, which caught Powell somewhat off guard. However, he emphasized the 'risk of sustained inflation,' also suggesting that he is more concerned about uncontained inflation rather than short-term economic slowdown. This may reflect the current economic environment—inflation is already a sensitive topic, and any additional push could make the Federal Reserve's task of controlling inflation more challenging.

In my opinion, Powell's stance is very pragmatic. He did not directly criticize the tariff policy (after all, the Federal Reserve tries to remain neutral), but focused on its economic consequences, reminding everyone of the risks involved. At the same time, he is not in a hurry to state specific countermeasures, demonstrating a clear understanding of the complex situation. However, if tariffs are indeed widely implemented, how long he can maintain this 'wait and see' strategy is a question. The market and the public may urge the Federal Reserve to give a clear signal, and at that point, merely waiting may not be enough. #鲍威尔发言