『Part.3』🔥Powell's Latest Speech: What Signals Are Being Released? Will the Fed Delay Rate Cuts? 🚀
3. Market Impact: How Do Investors Interpret This?
After Powell's speech, U.S. bond yields rose slightly, and the dollar index showed a minor rebound, reflecting increased uncertainty in the market regarding the rate cut path. The stock market exhibited some hesitation, as investors are trying to determine whether the Fed will delay action. Based on pricing in the futures market, investors still generally bet that rate cuts will begin in the second half of this year, but the expectations for the number and timing of cuts have fluctuated. This indicates that the market feels complex about Powell's 'steady yet changing' attitude.
4. Future Outlook: Will the Fed Delay Rate Cuts?
Given the current situation, the Fed's policy path will heavily depend on economic data in the coming quarters, especially inflation and employment. The following factors will be key:
⭐CPI and PCE Trends: If core inflation remains stubborn, the Fed will inevitably delay rate cuts.
⭐Labor Market Changes: If the unemployment rate rises or wage growth slows, it may prompt rate cuts.
⭐Global Trade Policy Trends: If rising tariffs continue to pressure prices, it will be an important reason for delaying easing.
Considering these factors, we can foresee that the Fed will be more cautious and data-dependent in its future policy decisions. There is still potential for rate cuts within the year, but 'when to act' and 'how many times' will depend on future actual economic performance, rather than the current preset path.
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