It's not that interest rates aren't being cut, it's waiting for Trump! The crypto market is stuck in the calm before the storm.
Last night Powell spoke, neither hawkish nor dovish, and to sum it up in one sentence:
'There’s no rush to act now, wait for Trump’s policies to take effect first.'
This statement seems mild on the surface, but actually reveals a high degree of uncertainty + political maneuvering, and its impact on our crypto market is far more complex than you think. Let me break it down for you.
Not cutting interest rates for now = risk assets continue to hold their positions.
If the U.S. doesn't spend money and interest rates aren't eased, the market won't dare to gamble heavily.
$BTC's sideways + spike movements in recent days are just repeatedly testing market sentiment.
The reason it won't rise is that no one dares to take the lead, and it won't fall because the holders won't let go—this is the most uncomfortable market, driving technical analysts crazy and exhausting emotional traders!
No hawkish stance = left a loophole, possibly easing.
Although he said 'we need to observe the data', he didn't continue with a hawkish stance, instead acknowledging that the employment market 'is starting to cool down.'
What does this mean? There is a possibility of starting expectation management + gradual easing by mid-year, as long as inflation indicators ease a bit more, the FOMC could turn around at any moment.
This also explains why the crypto market hasn't crashed, because Powell has implicitly accepted—'we can't suppress the market now, if we act harshly, there will really be trouble.'
No specific mention of cryptocurrency = substantial positive news.
He didn't mention Bitcoin at all, didn't criticize stablecoins, nor hinted at regulatory crackdowns.
In the current atmosphere where G7 leaders frequently hint at 'regulating cryptocurrency', this is actually a friendly statement.
In other words, BTC's legitimacy as an alternative asset is becoming more stable, and the financial system has implicitly accepted its existence.
Summary: This market can be summed up in one word—stuck!
No rise, no fall, neither a short squeeze nor a crash.
News vacuum, capital on the sidelines, no change in holdings.
Next, we'll see the FOMC meeting + Trump's economic/trade policies take shape.
Really want to speculate on a rebound? Don't act impulsively, remember these key points:
Small position to test, strict stop-loss settings;
Keep an eye on changes in interest rate expectations and sense anomalies in advance;
Use on-chain data from exchanges and robot movements as a warning radar.
Don't forget—this kind of stuck and oscillating state is exactly when the big players love to set traps.
Next, it's not a question of rising or falling, it's a question of who moves first! What we need to do is not chase highs or lows, but to ambush in advance and strike accurately!
