Trump's actions have indeed exceeded market expectations
Originally thought that a 20% tariff would be the ceiling, but it turned out to be just the starting point.
It was supposed to be a day when negative news was fully priced in, but the market discovered that the bad news is endless.
It has been proven that it is still too early to talk about bottom fishing.
Let's take a look at the specific tariff situation (as shown in the figure):
This has led to many products from East Asia and Southeast Asia being priced inversely—import price > selling price, and it may even be that tax > selling price.
Moreover, tariffs do not only affect exporting countries; the corresponding tariffs or price increase policies of exporting countries will lead to significant inflation in the United States. The current capital market cannot withstand such an economic slowdown and is bound to fall endlessly, coupled with the rising cost of living for ordinary people. It is still uncertain whether this tariff policy can be sustained.
Additionally, the so-called return of manufacturing advocated by Trump also requires time; after all, factories cannot be built in a day. Local manufacturing of goods certainly requires long-term investment and planning. Furthermore, during his previous term, Trump's tariff policies did not improve employment issues or farmers' crop market problems. Instead, the tariff policies are more likely to make the MAGA group the most unfortunate victims.
What needs to be clarified now is which items align with Trump's return policy and which items are inherently strong in the U.S. The former may have a chance to bottom fish, while the latter may experience a slight decline and then become stronger, of course, this is a speculation under the premise that the U.S. economy does not enter recession.
