#加密市场回调

Tonight, the U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released (expected increase of 135,000, unemployment rate remains at 4.1%), triggering a market tug-of-war, with the key logic as follows:

Data Discrepancy: There are significant differences in predictions; Citigroup believes the job increase could be as low as 95,000, while Nomura expects the unemployment rate could rise to 4.2%. However, high-frequency data suggests that the figure may exceed expectations, reaching 200,000.

Bullish and Bearish Logic:

Bears: If the data is weak (e.g., job increase < 100,000), it would strengthen recession expectations, increase the probability of interest rate cuts, benefiting gold. If the data is decent (around 140,000), it would be interpreted as a short-term rebound, cautioning against sticky wage inflation suppressing rate cuts.

Bulls: If the data is strong (e.g., > 200,000), it would temporarily boost risk assets, but tariff policies and economic concerns will still limit the dollar's gains. If the unemployment rate unexpectedly declines, the market may focus on economic resilience.

Gold Trend: Technical support level is $3,050; if the data falls short of expectations, it may impact the historical high of $3,167; if it exceeds expectations, there may be a short-term pullback, but the fundamentals (geopolitical risks + expectations of rate cuts) will still support the medium-term trend.

External Variables: Trump's tariff policy and the political turmoil in South Korea are intensifying safe-haven demand, and the details of the non-farm data (wage growth, data revisions) may amplify volatility.

In short, the data can be utilized by different narratives regardless of good or bad outcomes, but the core of the volatility lies in the 'expectation gap'—deviation from consensus (140,000) ± 50,000 could trigger sharp fluctuations, with gold remaining the focal point of the bull-bear contest.