The impact of the Trump administration's tariff policy on BTC (Bitcoin) is multifaceted, involving market sentiment, macroeconomic linkage, policy uncertainty, and long-term structural changes. The following is a detailed analysis:
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### **I. Direct Market Reaction: Price Volatility and Liquidation Wave**
1. **Severe price volatility**
- **Short-term crash**: The tariff policy triggered market panic, and Bitcoin prices plummeted shortly after the policy announcement. For example, on March 28, 2025, after the announcement of the tariff policy, Bitcoin briefly fell to **$87,000**, down about 4% from its weekly high of $91,000; Ethereum (ETH) dropped to $2,015, and XRP's decline expanded to 2.7.
- **Historical extreme volatility**: On March 4, 2025, after Trump announced tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and other countries, Bitcoin plummeted over 11% within 24 hours, Ethereum fell by over 17%, and the total liquidation amount across the network exceeded **$1 billion**, with 310,000 people liquidated.
2. **Liquidation and liquidity crisis**
- The market panic triggered by tariffs led to massive liquidations among leveraged traders. For example, CoinGlass data shows that the total liquidation amount across the network reached **$223 million** within 24 hours, with BTC accounting for $52 million.
- The cryptocurrency market experienced a liquidity drain, with Bitcoin seeing a net outflow of **$660 million** in 24 hours and Ethereum losing $314 million.
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### **II. Macroeconomic Linkage: Resonance of Traditional Markets and Crypto Markets**
1. **Decline in risk appetite**
- The tariff policy intensified market concerns about trade wars and stagflation, prompting investors to turn to safe-haven assets (such as gold), while Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, was hit hardest. For instance, after the announcement of the tariff policy in February 2025, gold prices broke through $2,800/ounce, while Bitcoin plummeted due to the sell-off of risk assets.
2. **Enhanced correlation with traditional assets**
- The three-month correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 index surpassed **0.7**, indicating that the linkage between cryptocurrency and traditional markets has reached a historic high.
- In March 2025, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively plunged due to tariff policies (Dow fell 1.48%, Nasdaq fell 2.64%), putting pressure on the crypto market simultaneously.
3. **Indirect effects of inflation and monetary policy**
- **Inflation pressure**: Tariffs may drive up U.S. inflation (e.g., the March 2025 tariff policy is expected to raise inflation by 0.6 percentage points), and if the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts as a result, it will suppress liquidity support for cryptocurrencies.
- **Potential benefits of dovish policies**: If the Federal Reserve maintains an accommodative stance (e.g., potential interest rate cuts in June 2025), Bitcoin may rebound due to dollar depreciation and ample liquidity.
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### **III. Policy Uncertainty and Market Expectation Game**
1. **Short-term bearishness and long-term expectation differentiation**
- **Short-term impact**: The tariff policy raised concerns about a global trade recession, leading investors to sell high-risk assets.
- **Long-term game**: The expectation that the Trump administration may include Bitcoin in the national reserve (e.g., Bitcoin rose 14% within two weeks after the tariff policy in November 2024) coexists with policy uncertainty. If tariffs lead to a depreciation of the dollar, Bitcoin's anti-inflation properties may be repriced.
2. **Volatility of policy signals**
- Trump's repeated statements on tariffs (e.g., threatening to impose tariffs on Russian oil but then indicating a delay) have increased market anxiety. For example, in March 2025, the market briefly rebounded due to rumors of a 'national cryptocurrency strategic reserve,' but then plummeted due to ambiguity in policy details.
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### **IV. Structural Impact: Changes in the Crypto Market Ecosystem**
1. **Funds concentrating on mainstream coins**
- The tariff policy accelerated market differentiation, with funds flowing from altcoins to Bitcoin and Ethereum. For instance, in January 2024, Bitcoin saw a net outflow of $430 million in a single day, while altcoins fell more significantly due to liquidity shortages (e.g., DOGE plummeted 14% in February 2025).
2. **Regulatory and compliance pressure**
- The U.S. Treasury has frozen on-chain assets worth $1.2 billion suspected of tariff evasion, indicating tightening regulation. Investors are turning to decentralized exchanges (DEX), whose trading volume share has risen to 18%.
3. **Increase in long-term holders**
- On-chain data shows that the net outflow of BTC from exchanges increased by 12% month-on-month, with whale addresses (holding more than 1000 BTC) increasing their holdings by 213,000 Bitcoin under expectations of policy easing, indicating long-term investors are taking advantage of the pullback.
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### **V. Future Outlook and Key Risk Points**
1. **Short-term risks**
- **Effective date of tariffs (April 2)**: If tariffs are fully implemented, it could lead to a contraction of global trade volume by $2.3 trillion, with Bitcoin's correlation to traditional assets rising to a historic peak of 0.78.
- **Federal Reserve policy**: If inflation spirals out of control, the Federal Reserve may tighten liquidity, suppressing Bitcoin's rise.
2. **Long-term opportunities**
- **Anti-inflation demand**: If the dollar remains weak due to tariff policies, Bitcoin may benefit from safe-haven demand.
- **Policy support**: If the U.S. advances a Bitcoin reserve plan or reaches a trade agreement, the crypto market may regain upward momentum.
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### **Summary**
Trump's tariff policy has a profound impact on BTC through three mechanisms: **market sentiment shock, macroeconomic linkage, and policy uncertainty**.
- **Short-term**: Severe price volatility, frequent liquidations, and liquidity crises;
- **Mid-term**: Enhanced correlation with traditional assets, dominated by Federal Reserve policy and inflation expectations;
- **Long-term**: May accelerate the integration of cryptocurrency into the mainstream financial system, but needs to overcome regulatory and policy risks.#美国加征关税 
