Today is April 2, 2025, and the global financial market is holding its breath for a storm - the Trump administration's long-awaited "reciprocal tariff" policy is about to be unveiled.
Although the market has long expected this policy, when the shoe really lands, panic and uncertainty may still cause violent shocks. The following are the core contradictions and potential risks that are most worthy of attention at present.
The ultimate suspense of "reciprocal tariffs": tax rates, scope and political games
Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" have always been full of swings and contradictions from proposal to implementation. Although he has repeatedly declared that "the tax rate will be relaxed" and even hinted that it will be lower than expected, the draft leaked from the White House shows that a 20% global tariff is still the core option, covering everything from agricultural products to industrial products, and almost indiscriminately hitting all trading partners. This tax rate is far higher than the "10% safety line" acceptable to the market. If it is finally implemented, short-term chaos in the global supply chain is almost inevitable.
However, Trump's capriciousness is still the biggest variable. On March 27, he said that "the tax rate will be a surprise", hinting at a possible compromise, but the next day he announced through his advisers that "there will be no exemption clauses". This "carrot and stick" negotiation strategy is not only a pressure on trading partners, but also a consolidation of the domestic political base - after all, if the $6 trillion in revenue from tariffs is returned to voters in the form of tax rebates, it will become an important bargaining chip for his re-election.