Trump's tariff easing boosts the market rebound; the 86000 resistance level and non-farm data are crucial!

Due to Trump's softened stance on tariffs (there is still room for negotiation), the market attempted another upward rebound yesterday, closing at a stabilized corrective price (84708.58). There is still a possibility of testing the downward trend line (around 86000) again. However, attention should be paid to the non-farm employment data on April 4th (Friday). If the market encounters resistance again at the top and breaks down, the initial support level below is in the dark horse model area (around 75714.66).

Specifically, regarding non-farm data, there is dual pressure from government layoffs and a cooling demand in the private sector. The market generally expects the number of new jobs to slow to 135,000 - 140,000 (previous value 151,000), with federal government layoffs expected to drag down about 15,000 positions, while the private sector's willingness to hire decreases due to policy uncertainty. If the data significantly falls below expectations (e.g., below 100,000), it may confirm a deceleration in economic growth, intensifying market concerns about a “hard landing,” and forcing the Federal Reserve to signal an early rate cut; conversely, if the data remains stable (e.g., above 140,000), it indicates that the labor market remains resilient, delaying expectations of policy easing. The unemployment rate (expected at 4.1%) if unexpectedly rises, may reflect the transmission effect of tariffs causing a decline in manufacturing and service sector sentiment.