Real-time Analysis - Brief Version

The White House has announced that tariffs on Dongda will rise to 104%, effective immediately today. This is the highest tariff imposed on all goods from a single country in U.S. history.

This is a protracted struggle and an attempt to reset the global financial order. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, stated in his latest article: "What matters is not the tariffs, but the collapse of the old order." In a de-globalized world, major countries cannot trust each other—one side fears supply chain disruptions, while the other worries about debt repayment issues, creating a significant imbalance in trade and capital that is clearly unsustainable.

There is a high probability that the following situation will occur: Customs employees on the front lines in the U.S. may not be able to handle the complex new tariffs, leading to a backlog of containers at U.S. ports. In the coming 1 to 2 months, the U.S. inland is likely to experience widespread supply chain paralysis, soaring prices, and extreme shortages of goods. The currently absurd situation of smuggling eggs at the border may soon cease to be a joke.

With the announcement of the tariffs, the market immediately formed a gap, and the support level near the Black Horse model 75714.66 is likely to be officially broken, falling into a trading concentration area that has been consolidating for more than half a year before the election, testing the upper limit of the range at 73777 (this judgment is based on the advanced application of the "1+3" model).

Therefore, according to previous analysis, it is not advisable to make a second entry into long positions at the Black Horse model level.