Real-time Analysis - Simplified

#Macroeconomic

Economic Data: New Non-Farm Payrolls (22.8) greatly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate (4.2%) rounded off is basically in line with expectations, indicating resilience in the economy. Therefore, the market experienced a short-term rebound after the data was released.

Subsequently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech was hawkish: The Fed is committed to maximizing employment and the 2% inflation target, stating that the economic situation is good but faces uncertainties such as tariffs. The policy will remain patient, waiting for clearer data before adjusting interest rates. (The Fed does not seem willing to fully yield to Trump)

Other countries still have time to compromise with the U.S. before April 9, so there is still some room for maneuver regarding tariffs. However, the U.S. tax season starting on April 15 could lead to an increase in TGA, resulting in dollar liquidity tightening, and the GDP data might raise market expectations of a recession in the U.S., which still requires attention.

#Technical

In the short term, today’s close once again stands firmly above the lowest revised price of the EA arbitrage model at 82716.49, indicating that the technical aspect of Bitcoin has not significantly weakened. There may still be an upward test towards the revised closing price of 84708.58 (which is also near the descending trendline), but there will likely be resistance and a pullback afterward. This is because, according to the up-and-down trend model, once the downtrend was established on the 2.25, it still requires a longer time and more space for adjustment.

#Two Possible Reasons for Limited Decline in Bitcoin in the Short Term:

1. Bitcoin's safe-haven property as digital gold is gradually becoming prominent, and the systemic risk brought by the stock market to BTC is weakening, making it potentially more attractive to investors seeking diversification. (β-BTC/β-NASDAQ = 0.68). Additionally, on-chain data shows that the cost of the closest long-term holders to the current price is around 81000 (with a scale of over 300,000 coins), providing some support for the price.

2. BTC ETF saw a net inflow of 218 million on 4.2, which was greater than the net outflow in the following two days (and the net outflow was decreasing), with the net short positions in hedge funds reducing leverage to support the coin price. The negative premium of BTC spot is gradually decreasing, indicating the possibility of price rebound support. (Refer to the divergence in spot price and premium after 3.31 for the trend).