Three Major Misunderstandings in the Crypto World: Looking Beyond the Surface to See the Essence

1. It's not that ETH is underperforming, but rather that BTC is extraordinary

ETH has experienced about a 70% drop before every major bull market; for example, before the bull market in 2017, it plummeted by 71%, and before the bull market in 2020, it dropped by 68%. Currently, ETH has fallen 56%, similar to previous declines.

2. What affects the bull and bear cycles in the crypto world is not halving, but monetary policy

According to the halving cycle, this year should be a major bull year, with ETH and altcoins taking off, but the result is clearly different. Instead, it resembles the trends after the small bull market in 2019, which also occurred in the later stages of QT. The four-year bull and bear cycle has been disrupted; only QE and low interest rates can lead to a major bull market for altcoins.

3. The crypto world is not independent of the financial market, but closely follows U.S. stock trends

As international capital connects with the crypto world, since 2020, BTC has become equivalent to leading tech stocks in the U.S. stock market, while ETH and altcoins are akin to small-cap junk stocks; BTC's trend aligns with QQQ, while ETH aligns with small-cap indices like S&P 600 and Russell 2000.