煌道

Short-term and Long-term of 6.17 BTC
1. The medium to long-term outlook for BTC and ETH remains very bullish. We are currently experiencing a pullback after 7 consecutive weeks of gains, and this pullback is expected to continue for a few more weeks.
2. In the short term, the upper pressure range is between 108,600 and 112,000, and there is still a possibility of testing this upper pressure range again shortly.
3. Support is around 100,000, and the final pullback low may potentially fall below this range, but it won't be too deep; it's hard to drop below 90,000.

6.16 A Few Views on Future Trends
1. Regarding the so-called M-top, from any perspective, I do not believe this is a historical peak. We are still in the hesitant upward phase, far from a true top or a frenzied climax.
2. It is quite normal for BTC to experience a pullback of 3-5 weeks after rising for 7 consecutive weeks and hitting new highs. The final pullback low could potentially be below 100,000, but it is unlikely to drop below 90,000.
3. BTC has become correlated with the US stock market, and the current liquidity in the US stock market has led to a supply-demand imbalance for BTC. There is no need to fear high prices for BTC; just look at how the Nasdaq has been rising for decades.
4. The opportunity for ETH is developing well, while altcoins only have temporary opportunities before quantitative easing, such as when BTC's adjustment ends and it breaks new highs again.

6.12 ETH will rise above 4000
1. Due to fee issues, Grayscale's ETHE has been the largest seller, but since May 15, ETHE has hardly been sold, while BlackRock's ETHA buys tens of millions of dollars daily.
2. This situation also occurred with BTC; from mid-September to October 2024, Grayscale's GBTC was also hardly sold, while BlackRock's IBTC continuously bought in large amounts, and then BTC started to surge in November.
3. The target for ETH to return to 4000 within three months.

6.10 Once Again Approaching New Highs
1. BTC is once again approaching new highs after pulling back to around 100,000, while ETH is also nearing its previous high after a month of fluctuations.
2. When reaching new highs, it is crucial to pay attention to whether the breakout is genuine or false. If there is sufficient adjustment before the new high and both BTC and ETH break out simultaneously, the reliability of the breakout will significantly increase.
3. On the news front, the China-U.S. negotiations and the release of the U.S. May CPI on Wednesday night.

6.9 BTC is far from the top
1. Those looking for a top believe that a situation similar to the weekly top divergence in November 2021 may occur
2. However, looking at the U.S. stock market, the trend is consistent with March 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, where after a major crash there was a V-shaped recovery, indicating that this is not only not a top but may likely be the beginning of a major bull run
3. The U.S. stock market, ETH, and altcoins have just experienced a wave comparable to the major crash during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and market sentiment is very low under the shadows of trade wars and economic recession. Based on fundamentals, monetary policy, U.S. stock market trends, altcoin movements, and sentiment, it can be judged that we are far from the top.

6.5 How wide is it horizontally, how tall is it vertically
1. ETH has been consolidating sideways for almost a month now; the longer the consolidation lasts, the stronger the future breakout will be.
2. ETH/BTC has also shown signs of bottoming out, with a chance to end three years of continuous decline.
3. BlackRock's ETF has almost been buying 20,000 ETH every day on average in recent weeks, never selling but has sold BTC, and U.S. listed companies have also started to adopt ETH as treasury.

5.22 BTC Dominates
1. BTC slightly reached a new high this morning, during a time when both the Asian and American markets are at rest.
2. BTC is the only major global investment product that has reached a new high recently; gold, the three major US stock indices, Coinbase, and MicroStrategy have not reached new highs.
3. BTC remains strong; this wave of increase has not even broken the previous low on an hourly basis, but ETH has not followed with a breakout. Altcoins are looking to ETH for direction, and market sentiment will be fully ignited once ETH breaks out.
4. Although BTC has reached a new high, the funding rate is very low, and contracts are still at a negative premium, indicating that BTC is rising without any pullbacks. This has left many either waiting for a pullback and missing out or continuously trying to short. From this perspective, the bullish market remains very secure.

5.16 Consolidation Before Historical New High
1. BTC is consolidating near its historical high, and a strong bullish trend has already formed. For short-term trading opportunities, either wait for a breakthrough of the new high or wait for a pullback to the EMA20 moving average.
2. After a week of explosive growth, altcoins have started to generally pull back. I believe the altcoin market has just begun, and the pullback is brewing the next larger surge.

Correlation between Gold and BTC Market Share

1. Gold is the gold standard of dollar assets and a safe-haven asset; while BTC is the currency standard of crypto assets, a safe-haven asset in crypto, the logic is consistent.
2. Since May 2021, the trends of gold and BTC.D have been almost identical, with gold falling, BTC.D falling, and altcoins rising.
3. Gold shows signs of a weekly-level peak, which will lead more funds to embrace risk assets and altcoins.

5.14 BTC's Last Resistance
1. In the past week, the market share of BTC and stablecoins (BTC.D + USDT.D + USDC.D) began to plummet after reaching 73%. Historically, the 73% range has always been a peak zone.
2. ETH/BTC has begun to touch the bullish support line, showing conditions for a potential bottom.
3. Altcoins are starting to break through important resistance levels even before BTC sets a new high, earlier and stronger than the previous two times.
4. BTC's market share has been rising for three and a half years, and altcoins are about to enter an explosive era, which could signify a medium to long-term trend change.

5.12 Will This Week Set a New Historical High?
1. Last week, BTC closed with a strong bullish candle near its previous high. Historically, it is possible that this week will set a new historical high, or at the latest, it will consolidate for one or two weeks before reaching a new high.
2. Once BTC effectively breaks through, altcoins will accelerate in their rise, and BTC's market share will plummet.
3. Is there a possibility that BTC will form a double top at the peak of the last bull market? There is such a possibility, but there is no need to worry too much; let's see if the breakout is real or false.

EOS, from both the daily and weekly charts, has completed a tight consolidation followed by a divergence, indicating that the main force has finished accumulating, and has broken through key resistance levels with volume, suggesting a potential breakout in the future.

It represents the trends of many classical altcoins; if even these old relics break out, this round of altcoin season could possibly be the strongest altcoin season of this bull market.

5.9 The Strongest Altcoin Season Begins
1. The altcoin index broke through a key resistance level yesterday, with the previous two instances occurring in October 2023 and November 2024, both followed by a significant surge in altcoins and a sharp drop in BTC market share.
2. The previous two breakthroughs of the altcoin index occurred after BTC reached new highs, but this breakthrough is earlier.
3. The previous altcoin market experienced a 90% decline, and after extreme panic, there will be an extreme celebration.
4. In the next two to three months, altcoins will experience a major explosion, with SUI and its ecosystem, AI, and MEME leading the way.

5.6 Continue Callback
1. After a 9-day rise, US stocks experienced their first slight decline yesterday.
2. BTC found brief support around 93000 and is consolidating slightly sideways in preparation for further decline.
3. The chip structure between 89000-93000 is very sparse, and when BTC falls below 93000, it will face accelerated decline.

5.3 A major pullback is about to unfold
1. Despite BTC reaching new highs in the past two days, trading volume has continued to shrink, and the breakout has not produced an effective range
2. ETH and SOL did not follow the breakout
3. Since 74000, it has risen by 32%, and each time this increase has been reached during the bull market, a pullback has occurred
4. BTC today has retraced all the gains from the breakout, confirming a false breakout
5. The pullback target for BTC is around 86000

5.1 Gold Peaks, Risk Assets Will Welcome Major Opportunities

1. After experiencing a month and a half of accelerated rise, gold shows signs of peaking, with the price and moving average divergence similar to that at the top in August 2020, potentially indicating a weekly level peak signal.
2. The peak of gold is a huge positive for the high-risk cryptocurrency market; when gold peaked in August 2020, the cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks saw a brief pullback before entering a major bull market surge.
3. Bullish on the cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks in the second half of the year, looking for a buying opportunity during a necessary pullback before a surge, which is expected to occur within a month.

The ALPACA Dog Fund Crazy Harvests Tens of Millions of U Using Binance's Delisting Policy Loophole

1. Binance's voting to delist certain tokens effectively gives the Dog Fund advance time to collect chips. These tokens have a market value of millions of U, making it easy to gather most of the circulating supply before the delisting notice.

2. After the delisting notice is released, a vast amount of retail funds typically enter to short ALPACA, while the Dog Fund goes long due to having control over the chips. The spot price can be pushed up indefinitely, skyrocketing 50 times within a few days, causing the tens of millions of U that entered to short to be liquidated.

3. Most importantly, Binance's contract delisting rule automatically settles based on the average price in the half-hour before the market closes, meaning the Dog Fund does not have to consider the issue of offloading. They pushed ALPACA from a market value of millions of U to 150 million U, harvesting tens of millions of U of short funds in the market, and the exchange will automatically close positions for profit.

4. After making tens of millions of U in contract profits, the spot market still has two days before delisting, providing ample time to sell off this worthless spot and make another profit.

Make Altcoins Great Again

1. Since the bull market, the real increase in altcoins has only occurred during two periods: October 2023 and November 2024.

2. Each time the altcoin index has risen from below 20 to above 80.

3. Currently, the altcoin index has been hovering below 20 for several days, and there is hope for a third rise.

4.29 Pullback Pressure
1. Since the bull market began, after the short-term moving averages on the daily chart have crossed downwards and risen about 30%, a pullback has always followed, with a pullback of at least 50%. This has occurred 5 times before.
2. Currently, BTC has risen 28% from 74,000. There is a huge amount of trapped positions between 95,000 and 98,000. BTC is facing pullback pressure; if the pullback is 50%, it will drop to 85,000.
3. This is the process of shifting from short to long, and after the moving averages regroup closely, they will expand towards the bullish side.

4.28 A huge bullish market is brewing

If BTC pulls back to the range of 82000-87000 in the next two weeks, the moving averages will become dense again, and there will be an opportunity to double again, similar to the wave at 25000 and 49000.