煌道

5.22 BTC Dominates
1. BTC slightly reached a new high this morning, during a time when both the Asian and American markets are at rest.
2. BTC is the only major global investment product that has reached a new high recently; gold, the three major US stock indices, Coinbase, and MicroStrategy have not reached new highs.
3. BTC remains strong; this wave of increase has not even broken the previous low on an hourly basis, but ETH has not followed with a breakout. Altcoins are looking to ETH for direction, and market sentiment will be fully ignited once ETH breaks out.
4. Although BTC has reached a new high, the funding rate is very low, and contracts are still at a negative premium, indicating that BTC is rising without any pullbacks. This has left many either waiting for a pullback and missing out or continuously trying to short. From this perspective, the bullish market remains very secure.

5.1 Gold Peaks, Risk Assets Will Welcome Major Opportunities

1. After experiencing a month and a half of accelerated rise, gold shows signs of peaking, with the price and moving average divergence similar to that at the top in August 2020, potentially indicating a weekly level peak signal.
2. The peak of gold is a huge positive for the high-risk cryptocurrency market; when gold peaked in August 2020, the cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks saw a brief pullback before entering a major bull market surge.
3. Bullish on the cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks in the second half of the year, looking for a buying opportunity during a necessary pullback before a surge, which is expected to occur within a month.

The ALPACA Dog Fund Crazy Harvests Tens of Millions of U Using Binance's Delisting Policy Loophole

1. Binance's voting to delist certain tokens effectively gives the Dog Fund advance time to collect chips. These tokens have a market value of millions of U, making it easy to gather most of the circulating supply before the delisting notice.

2. After the delisting notice is released, a vast amount of retail funds typically enter to short ALPACA, while the Dog Fund goes long due to having control over the chips. The spot price can be pushed up indefinitely, skyrocketing 50 times within a few days, causing the tens of millions of U that entered to short to be liquidated.

3. Most importantly, Binance's contract delisting rule automatically settles based on the average price in the half-hour before the market closes, meaning the Dog Fund does not have to consider the issue of offloading. They pushed ALPACA from a market value of millions of U to 150 million U, harvesting tens of millions of U of short funds in the market, and the exchange will automatically close positions for profit.

4. After making tens of millions of U in contract profits, the spot market still has two days before delisting, providing ample time to sell off this worthless spot and make another profit.

Make Altcoins Great Again

1. Since the bull market, the real increase in altcoins has only occurred during two periods: October 2023 and November 2024.

2. Each time the altcoin index has risen from below 20 to above 80.

3. Currently, the altcoin index has been hovering below 20 for several days, and there is hope for a third rise.

4.29 Pullback Pressure
1. Since the bull market began, after the short-term moving averages on the daily chart have crossed downwards and risen about 30%, a pullback has always followed, with a pullback of at least 50%. This has occurred 5 times before.
2. Currently, BTC has risen 28% from 74,000. There is a huge amount of trapped positions between 95,000 and 98,000. BTC is facing pullback pressure; if the pullback is 50%, it will drop to 85,000.
3. This is the process of shifting from short to long, and after the moving averages regroup closely, they will expand towards the bullish side.

4.28 A huge bullish market is brewing

If BTC pulls back to the range of 82000-87000 in the next two weeks, the moving averages will become dense again, and there will be an opportunity to double again, similar to the wave at 25000 and 49000.

4.25 The rigid easily breaks, the gentle does not fail

1. BTC experienced nearly 300 million U in short liquidations during the rise on April 22, marking the largest single-day short liquidation since the bull market began.

2. If BTC continues to rise without retracing, it is clearing shorts in preparation for further declines. It appears strong, but the market may not last long.

3. If BTC actively retraces and consolidates over the next week or two, fully rotating and locking in positions, it may open a new round of bullish trends.

4.24 Massive Lock-in Chip Peak
1. There is a massive lock-in chip peak in the range of 92000-10000. If the bulls want to continue, they will need one to two weeks of sufficient turnover to digest the locked-in positions.
2. The market in these two weeks will be quite critical, as it will determine whether the rebound ends and a new decline begins, or if the locked-in positions are digested and a new upward trend starts.

4.22 How Should You Choose Between Gold, BTC, and US Stocks?
1. Gold has experienced a rare consecutive 3-week surge, with its price and moving average divergence reaching new highs, having doubled since October 2022, and it seems to be accelerating.
2. Many people are very optimistic about BTC reaching 140,000, but the 92,000 level is a life-and-death line for BTC; if it breaks above, the path ahead is clear, but failure will plunge it into the abyss, and you might see BTC starting with a 6 or even a 5.
3. The S&P is approaching the 200-week moving average, and almost all investment targets that have fallen to this moving average will have significant investment value.

SOL will have the opportunity to form a huge head and shoulders pattern, and if it takes shape, its decline will be unimaginable!!

4.14 Several judgments on the market
1. Rebound rather than reversal, the rebound will continue, if the rebound is weaker, BTC will be around 87,000, if the rebound is stronger, it will return to around 92,000
2. SOL engulfed and recovered after falling below the key support of 120, which is a bullish signal. In the near future, the SOL rebound will outperform BTC, and ETH/BTC is still weak
3. US stocks bought some positions at the bottom on April 4 and April 7, and waited for the opportunity to increase the rest

4.10 Rebound or V-shaped reversal?

1. Last night, the US stock market and cryptocurrency market surged. Here, we need to consider whether it is a rebound or a V-shaped reversal, and whether we should chase the long positions or wait a little longer.

2. Historically, there has only been one true V-shaped reversal for the Nasdaq, which was during the black swan event of COVID-19 in 2020. Other than that, there will either be a second test or another decline.

3. This round of BTC peaked on January 20, and the tariff war started on February 1. This is considered a pullback phase encountering negative news, which accelerated the pullback but does not qualify as a complete black swan event.

4. I believe there will at least be another test or even a new round of declines.

Three Major Misunderstandings in the Crypto World: Looking Beyond the Surface to See the Essence

1. It's not that ETH is underperforming, but rather that BTC is extraordinary
ETH has experienced about a 70% drop before every major bull market; for example, before the bull market in 2017, it plummeted by 71%, and before the bull market in 2020, it dropped by 68%. Currently, ETH has fallen 56%, similar to previous declines.

2. What affects the bull and bear cycles in the crypto world is not halving, but monetary policy
According to the halving cycle, this year should be a major bull year, with ETH and altcoins taking off, but the result is clearly different. Instead, it resembles the trends after the small bull market in 2019, which also occurred in the later stages of QT. The four-year bull and bear cycle has been disrupted; only QE and low interest rates can lead to a major bull market for altcoins.

3. The crypto world is not independent of the financial market, but closely follows U.S. stock trends
As international capital connects with the crypto world, since 2020, BTC has become equivalent to leading tech stocks in the U.S. stock market, while ETH and altcoins are akin to small-cap junk stocks; BTC's trend aligns with QQQ, while ETH aligns with small-cap indices like S&P 600 and Russell 2000.

4.2 Just a Rebound
1. US stocks and BTC rebounded together last night; on one hand, the US stocks rebounded technically after dropping to the EMA200 position of the 2-day line, and on the other hand, there was a correction following the negative news about tariffs about to be announced.
2. Last month, CZ and He Yi personally promoted MEME, but this month the market reacted crazily with ACT and MUSK plummeting. In the context of tight liquidity, market makers couldn't hold on anymore; the truly valuable coins in the crypto world can be counted on one hand.

4.1 Open Low and Rise High
1. The Nasdaq opened low and rose high yesterday, breaking below previous lows but recovering. The price reached the EMA200 position of the 2-day line, a position that is very likely to rebound. It is expected that with the introduction of tariff policies, there will be a rebound as negative factors are exhausted, but the market has not yet bottomed out.
2. The upper pressure level for BTC is around 91000, while the short-term support level is around 74000.

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3.27 Rebound and Reduction of Positions
If BTC rebounds back to around 92,000, I will significantly reduce my positions in cryptocurrency assets for risk aversion, for several reasons:
1. Above 92,000 is a huge trapped position, and the price is almost impossible to break through all at once. If the bulls want to initiate a new round of upward momentum, it will require a long period of oscillation to fully exchange and digest this trapped position, after which I can buy back again.
2. Recently, there has been a continuous rebound with shrinking volume, and buying interest is not active. It is more likely that after the rebound ends, we will see a new low or even a crash.
3. The Nasdaq and the benchmark for U.S. stocks, NVIDIA, have both shown a death cross on the 2-day moving average for the first time since the bull market began, which is a warning signal.

A very magical indicator for judging BTC tops and bottoms: AAPL/BTC

If you use Apple/BTC, you will magically find that it has almost predicted every historical major top and bottom of BTC

Whenever AAPL/BTC ≤ 0.0022, BTC has welcomed a major top, in February 2017, March 2021, November 2021, and January 2025, never misjudged and never missed

Whenever AAPL/BTC rises to the top of the trend line, BTC has welcomed a major bottom, in December 2018, March 2020, September 2020, and November 2022

This is an interesting and precise indicator, with higher accuracy than traditional PI CYCLES and HASH RIBBONS. AAPL represents value, BTC represents bubble, and prices always fluctuate between value and bubble. Whenever prices are full of bubbles, they will return to value, and when prices are squeezed dry, they will again rush towards bubbles.

Where is the Nasdaq Index heading?
1. The Nasdaq, which has a high correlation with the cryptocurrency market, has been adjusting for 98 days, with a maximum decline of 14.5%. Currently, the 2-day EMA has formed a death cross.
2. Since 2009, a death cross in the 2-day EMA has only occurred 6 times, with the smallest decline at 18.5%, the largest decline at 37.5%, an average decline of 25.3%, and an average adjustment period of 150 days.
3. Aside from the major bear market in 2022 and the pandemic black swan in 2020, where declines exceeded 30%, other declines were around 20%.
4. Based on the current trend and historical trends, the decline of the Nasdaq has not yet ended. In the next month or two, adjustments will continue, and it will likely drop below 17,000, while the area around 16,000 has very strong support and investment value.

3.20 Rebound Rather Than Reversal
1. The Federal Reserve announced a plan to slow down QT, reducing the monthly redemption limit from 25 billion to 5 billion, which is the second time; the last time was on May 1, 2024, when it was reduced from 60 billion to 25 billion.
2. Regardless, this is good news; the last QT slowdown also brought about a wave of rebound.
3. Although BTC has broken through the short-term resistance level of 85,000, the trading volume is low, and above 92,000 is a huge area of trapped positions. This is more of a rebound and has not yet truly formed a bottom.