📢 Update on the analysis
Based on the previous analysis, a local target of 84,200 was set, which has been successfully achieved ✅.
Additionally, the gap has been closed, confirming the strength of the movement ✅.
➡️ According to the previously outlined scenario, there remain options to close levels 84,950+/- and 86,440+/-. However, it is necessary to monitor the situation on the 4-hour timeframe and analyze cash flows, as not everything is clear-cut.
➡️ Since a new month has started today, a detailed overview of the monthly timeframe will appear later in posts or in Friday's release (barring any unforeseen circumstances). In the meantime, it is suggested to consider the strategy for April (see screenshot).
1️⃣ Main scenario – white: the maximum value for the month is expected in the range of 103,000 or, as a compromise option, 98,200+/-.
2️⃣ Within the white scenario, a short-term movement from the zone 83,600-84,700-85,800-86,650 to the range 77,100-79,800 with subsequent recovery is possible.
3️⃣ The alternative (red) scenario assumes a decline to 83,600-84,700-85,800-86,650 with a probable further drop to the range 72,550-74,500-77,100. Such a development is possible during sharp convergences; however, a rapid recovery is expected after April 10.
4️⃣ The minimum boundary for the month is set at 72,550, although the probability of reaching this mark is low. Nevertheless, the possibility of testing 66,450 should be considered.
5️⃣ The key date is April 10, when inflation data will be released. An expected decrease of 0.3% should positively impact Powell's statements and the Fed's decisions on rates. This could become a growth driver. It is important that by this time the daily timeframe is not in an overbought condition, and the 4-hour timeframe is cleared. In case of a sharp rise, a reverse movement is possible, but this is currently unlikely.
6️⃣ Given the current analysis, it is assumed that the second half of April will be bullish. Depending on the situation's development, the growth may range from 15% to 25% during the period from April 1 to April 30.
⚠️ Key levels:
✅ Support: 82,351, 80,901, 79,810, 77,101, 74,501, 72,551, 71,001, 70,001, 69,001, 66,451.
❌ Resistance: 83,201, 83,601, 84,701, 85,802, 86,851, 87,602, 89,401, 91,301, 92,750, 94,000, 98,201, 100,000.
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