Key Events of the Week:
Wednesday, April 3:
Trump's introduction of reciprocal tariffs — risk of increased volatility.
Friday, April 5:
Unemployment data and NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) — the main macro driver of the week.
Crypto Market Outlook:
Sentiment: Sluggish. ETH has hit new lows since 2024, while BTC remains range-bound.
Volatility:
BTC implied volatility (IV) remains above 50% for key expirations.
Short-term IV may decrease after the quarterly expiration.
Options:
Activity is mainly focused on quarterly settlement (portfolio rebalancing).
Limited arbitrage opportunities — the market is waiting for triggers.
Risk Analysis:
Correlation with U.S. Stocks: Crypto prices are sensitive to earnings reports from giants like Apple and Tesla.
Macro Events: NFP data and speeches by Powell/Lagarde could trigger sharp moves.
Technical Levels:
ETH: Risk of testing $2,000.
BTC: Key support at $85,000.