April 1st BTC/ETH Market Analysis

Today's Fear and Greed Index is 34, indicating a fearful market sentiment. Major unlocks this week include ENA and W.

Since March 27th, when Trump announced the increase in tariffs, the market began a significant decline the following day, with many financial institutions fleeing to safer positions, leaving retail investors to take over. Due to concerns over inflation, the market currently lacks confidence, and there is little possibility of a restart of interest rate cuts in the short term to restore market confidence.

Major Data:

4/3 US March ADP Employment Numbers Released / Trump Imposes Tariffs on Imported Cars

4/4 Trump Announces Details of Reciprocal Tariffs and Industry-Specific Tariffs / March Non-Farm Payrolls Released

BTC closed the monthly line last night approaching a rebound above 30,000, resulting in a downward pin bar on the real monthly line. It can be observed that there is currently a technical recovery in the market. After a doji candlestick on the daily chart yesterday, there was a slight increase today, but it still does not indicate significant volume, so it cannot be considered a bottoming signal. Combined with news over the next few days, increased volume will always accompany news; for now, bottom fishing should wait for the meeting's outcome. The upper resistance levels to watch are between 84,000-84,500. The lower range to focus on is between approximately 82,100 and 81,200. On the weekly chart, strong support continues to be at 78,500; if it breaks below, we will look directly at below 76,000, hoping Trump shows some mercy.

ETH has been relatively weak, especially the ETH/BTC exchange rate, which has reached a five-year low. This signifies that the influence and credibility of Ethereum is gradually declining. However, it also suggests that due to the significant drop in exchange rate, there is ample upward potential. As the king of public chains, while the Solana and BSC chains have previously surged, ERC20 has remained relatively subdued over the past two years. Therefore, my view is that ETH lacks a triggering opportunity for an on-chain explosion. On the weekly chart, Ethereum has been oscillating between 1,750 and 1,850 for four weeks, forming a strong support level. If the market breaks below 1,750, we will directly look towards around 1,530. For today, the upper resistance levels to monitor are 1,860 and 1,900, while the lower support levels to watch are between 1,810 and 1,770.

Currently, BTC and ETH are primarily focused on observing rebounds in preparation for tomorrow's conference, with an initial rise followed by a decline.