Based on the latest data (price: 2.2653, down -2.41%), here is the analysis to determine entry and impact of unlock token:
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#### 1. Current Technical Conditions
- Trend:
- Price below all EMAs (20, 50, 100, 200), confirming strong bearish trend.
- EMA 200 (2.8767) as main resistance.
- Key Levels:
- Support: 2.000 (psychological) and 1.874 (previous low).
- Resistance: EMA 20 (2.4205) and 2.500 (round number).
- Volume:
- Low trading volume (no specific data, but MA5/MA10 previous volume shows decrease in interest).
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#### 2. Indicators for Entry
- Buy Entry Scenario (Long):
- If rebounds from support:
- Price approaches 2.000 or 1.874 with confirmation:
- RSI <30 (oversold) + MACD (DIF > DEA).
- Significant increase in buying volume.
- Target: EMA 20 (2.4205) or 2.500.
- Bullish breakout:
- Price breaks above EMA 20 with high volume → Confirmation of short-term trend change.
- Sell Entry Scenario (Short):
- If rejected at resistance:
- Price fails above EMA 20 (2.4205) or 2.500 → Potential continuation of bearish trend.
- Stop-loss: Above EMA 50 (2.7225).
- Breakdown support 1.874:
- Next target: 1.700 or lower.
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#### 3. Impact of SUI Token Unlock
- General Unlock Effect:
- Increased supply → Short-term selling pressure, especially if not matched by demand.
- High volatility → Potential false breakdown/breakout.
- Strategy Facing Unlock:
- Avoid entry before unlock: Risk of sudden sell-off.
- Monitor volume after unlock:
- If the price stabilizes or rises with high volume → Strong signal (accumulation by whales).
- If the price drops with low volume → Potential quick recovery.
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#### 4. Risk Management
- Mandatory stop-loss:
- For long: Below nearest support (example: 1.850).
- For short: Above resistance (example: 2.4300).
- Position sizing:
- Small capital allocation (max 5%) due to unlock risk and bearish trend.
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### Conclusion
- Best entry:
- Long: Wait for confirmation of rebound at support 1.874 with oversold indicators.
- Short: If price is rejected at EMA 20 or breakdown support.
- Unlock token:
- Bearish catalyst factor, but could be a buying opportunity if the price overreacts and rebounds quickly.
- Priority: Adhere to risk-reward ratio (minimum 1:2) and avoid trading without confirmation.
⚠️ Note: Monitor SUI project news and market sentiment related to unlock to avoid fundamental risks!
