### **1. Understanding Market Context**
You are looking at the **ETHUSDC Perp** pair, which is a futures contract of Ethereum against the stablecoin USDC. The current price is **1,843.20**, with a rise of **+1.69%** over a certain period (possibly 24 hours).
**Main Question**:
*Is this the right time to **buy (long)** or **sell (short)**?*
To answer it, we need to analyze:
1. **Trend direction** (up/down).
2. **Important levels** (support/resistance).
3. **Signals from technical indicators**.
### **2. Trend Analysis with EMA**
EMA (*Exponential Moving Average*) helps us see the direction of the trend. The shorter the EMA period, the more sensitive it is to price movements.
- **EMA 20**: 1,852.15
- Current price (1,843.20) is **below EMA 20**, meaning in the short term, **momentum is weakening**.
- **EMA 50**: 1,911.38
- Price is well below EMA 50, indicating the medium-term trend is still **tending down (bearish)**.
- **EMA 200**: 2,098.10
- Price is well below EMA 200, confirming the long-term trend is still **strongly bearish**.
**Preliminary Conclusion**:
- The market is still in **seller control (bearish)**, but there is potential for a rebound if the price can break through EMA 20.
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### **3. Supporting Indicators**
#### **a. Parabolic SAR (1,768.43)**
- SAR is **below the price**, which is usually considered a **buy signal** (as it indicates an uptrend).
- However, since the price has just rebounded from a lower level, we need further confirmation.
#### **b. Bollinger Bands**
- **Upper Band (UP)**: 1,897.72
- **Middle Band (MB)**: 1,838.79
- **Lower Band (DN)**: 1,779.86
Current price (1,843.20) is **slightly above the middle band**, which means:
- The market is **not too overbought or oversold**.
- If the price approaches the **upper band**, it could be a selling signal.
- If the price drops to the **lower band**, it could be a buying signal.
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### **4. Important Levels to Watch**
#### **Support (Price Level that Holds Back Declines)**
1. **Lower Bollinger Band (1,779.86)**
2. **Parabolic SAR (1,768.43)**
If the price approaches this level and **bounces**, it could be a buying opportunity.
#### **Resistance (Price Level that Holds Back Increases)**
1. **EMA 20 (1,852.15)**
2. **Upper Bollinger Band (1,897.72)**
If the price rises but **is rejected at this level**, it could be a selling opportunity.
---
### **5. Possible Trading Strategies**
#### **A. Buy Scenario (Long)**
- **Conditions**:
- Price bounces off **1,768 (SAR) or 1,779 (Lower BB)** with high volume.
- EMA 20 starts to rise (indicating a change in momentum).
- **Target Profit**:
- EMA 20 (1,852) or Upper BB (1,897).
- **Stop-loss**:
- Below **1,768 (SAR)** to limit risk.
#### **B. Sell Scenario (Short)**
- **Conditions**:
- Price is rejected at **EMA 20 (1,852) or Upper BB (1,897)**.
- High selling volume during rejection.
- **Target Profit**:
- Lower BB (1,779) or SAR (1,768).
- **Stop-loss**:
- Above **1,852 (EMA 20)**.
#### **C. Stay Neutral (If Unsure)**
- If the price only moves sideways in the range of **1,780–1,850**, it is better to **wait for a clear breakout**.
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### **6. Risk Management (Important!)**
- **Always use a stop-loss** to avoid large losses.
- **Pay attention to volume**: Signals are more valid if supported by high volume.
- **News updates**: Fundamental factors (like Ethereum news or the crypto market) can change trends suddenly.
---
### **Decision Summary**
| Market Conditions | Recommended Action | Target | Stop-loss |
|--------------|---------------------------|--------|----------|
| Price bounces from 1,768–1,779 | **Buy (Long)** | 1,852–1,897 | Below 1,768 |
| Price is rejected at 1,852–1,897 | **Sell (Short)** | 1,768–1,779 | Above 1,852 |
| Price consolidates in the range of 1,780–1,850 | **Wait/Do not trade** | - | - |
---
### **Conclusion**
- **If you are an aggressive trader**: You can try **buying if the price bounces from 1,768–1,779**, hoping for a rise to 1,852–1,897.
- **If you are a conservative trader**: Wait for **a breakout above 1,897 (Upper BB)** to buy, or **a breakdown below 1,768 (SAR)** to sell.
- **Do not trade without a plan**-