➡️$$BTC
We have updated the weekly timeframe, as well as all the others, except the monthly one. Let's see what prospects it opens up for us:
1️⃣ Cash flow is weakening, which is a negative signal since this indicator plays a key role in the analysis.
2️⃣ However, assessing other parameters, we can assume that the weekly TF is preparing for local growth. Approximate start dates: from the current week to 1-2 weeks - for a smooth rise or sideways movement, 2-3 weeks - for more active growth within the local rebound. After that, there is a high probability of a new decline.
➡️ An important factor remains the monthly TF, which worsened in March, although the situation looked more optimistic on March 1. There is time before the end of the month, but if a positive scenario is realized, the expected "vigorous growth" within the monthly TF may begin by mid-August and beyond. So far, these are only preliminary estimates based on current data.
➡️ Of course, both positive and negative changes are possible - much depends on fundamental factors. So far, they look favorable, especially given the events of March 12 and 22. Ahead is the publication of inflation data, which theoretically should decline, as well as the Fed meetings on May 7 and June 18. Powell will probably announce an upcoming rate cut on June 18 on May 7, which could momentarily trigger growth on "rumors" and then on the news itself. In the summer, the market will most likely remain in a state of uncertainty, but closer to autumn, a final impulse before the end of the bullish cycle is possible.
➡️ Now a lot depends on the local long on the weekly TF - its volumes, money flow, price and divergences. During the entire cycle, I have not heard any serious discussions about the extension of the bull market or the exclusion of the bearish scenario, but there are constant forecasts about the collapse of Bitcoin and the inevitable fall. However, so far all movements look insignificant compared to 2021-2022. Will there be real euphoria? The probability is more yes than no.
➡️ Locally, everything is simple: the main patterns have been studied, the weekend has passed, the CME shows a gap at 84,200, which indicates a possible movement into this zone. There are also levels of 84,950±, EMA 200 on the 4-hour TF and the 86,440± block, which can become highs, given that the daily TF is still on the bears' side. However, the 4-hour TF tends to grow, at least to 84,200±. Further developments will be shown by the dynamics of the money flow.
➡️ Risk zones: it is important to remember the range of 73,000 - 69,000, where punctures or convergences are possible. It is too early to relax - for both bulls and bears.
➡️ For reference: I remain optimistic and expect the previously announced goals to be realized. All the coins remain with me, and I continue to monitor the developments. If the market does not go according to the scenario - well, I knew and know the rules of this game. Everyone makes their own decisions. Count your chickens in the fall!
⚠️ Key levels:
✅ Support: 80 900, 79 770, 77 150, 74 300, 72 650, 71 000, 70 000, 69 000
❌ Resistance: 83200, 84100, 85100, 86100, 87600, 88400, 90000, 92100, 94800, 96000, 98550, 100000