$BTC market analysis
Bitcoin continues to pull back, with prices dropping to around $81,600. Today, Bitcoin's rebound should pay attention to the 82425 position. Only if it stabilizes above this position can a rebound begin on the 2-4 hour level. The upper resistance levels to focus on are around 83450-84585-85575! Currently, the rebound strength is limited, and it is recommended to watch the market performance after the U.S. stock market opens in the evening.
$ETH may face pressure in the short term, and holder sentiment is low.
Pay attention to the 1812 position for Ethereum's rebound today. Only if it stabilizes above this position can a rebound begin on the 2-4 hour level. The upper resistance levels to pay attention to are around 1848-1883-1912!
If today's rebound cannot stabilize above the 1812 position, it indicates that the rebound lacks strength, and the bottom may either consolidate or decline. The support levels to pay attention to are around 1776-1752-1730!
$SOL has recently fallen below the key support of 120, increasing short-term bearish risks. Although on-chain activity is active, there is a lack of new projects to drive growth, making rebounds weak. If it falls below 110, it may dip into double digits. It is recommended to watch and wait for clear reversal signals before entering the market.
$BNB has recently shown strong momentum due to the activity in the BSC ecosystem and AI Hack events. Technically, it looks bullish. In the short term, attention can be paid to trading opportunities brought by BSC ecosystem projects. Long-term holding of $BNB still has potential.
$BERA has recently outperformed the market. Its innovative Proof-of-Liquidity model and high DeFi yields have attracted significant liquidity. Despite facing $9 resistance, the strong growth of the ecosystem and positive sentiment support its long-term potential. There may be short-term pullback risks, but it looks bullish in the medium to long term.
This week is interconnected, and volatility will be relatively high.
This week's market focus: Trump's tariffs, non-farm employment, Powell's speech, all three hitting at once.
Trump's tariffsOn April 2, local time in the U.S., Trump will announce trade countermeasures 'reciprocal tariffs.' Although Trump previously expressed an open attitude towards negotiating a tax rate reduction, no agreement will be reached before the announcement, creating uncertainty in the market regarding the ultimate impact and extent of the tariffs. Increased tariffs will raise production costs for U.S. companies, and if trade partners take countermeasures, it will increase the export costs of U.S. products, consume economic growth momentum, and may push up prices, triggering or worsening stagflation.
Non-farm payroll report
Expected situationAccording to a Reuters survey, the market expects 128,000 new non-farm jobs in the U.S. for March, lower than February's 151,000. According to China Securities Journal, the market expects 135,000 new non-farm jobs in March, with an average hourly wage growth of 3.9% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous value of 4%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.3% unchanged, with the unemployment rate expected to remain stable at 4.1%.
Possible impactsIf the non-farm payroll data can meet or exceed expectations, investors will feel that the U.S. economy has certain resilience to withstand current pressures, but this will put pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates; if the data is far below expectations, it may exacerbate market concerns about U.S. economic recession, increasing the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates.
Powell's speech: Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a public speech on the outlook for the U.S. economy. Recently, several U.S. economic data point to stagflation. The content of Powell's speech is crucial for the market's judgment on the U.S. economy, inflation trends, and future monetary policy paths. If Powell emphasizes the risks facing economic growth and inflation pressures, it may enhance market concerns about economic recession, affecting investor confidence and financial market stability; if he releases signals of optimism about the economy or hints at countermeasures, it may stabilize market sentiment to some extent.
How will it develop (when will the bull market start)?
The extreme opposite is the beginning of fortune, and the timing for a counterattack may emerge under the following conditions:
Macro-wise: Trump's policy needs to stabilize, and the market must adapt to its pace; the interest rate cut cycle has begun, providing preparation time; and after the black swan event, the central bank will expand its balance sheet.
Micro-wise: Looking forward to major breakthrough products in the AI field; a new narrative or gameplay in the cryptocurrency space that excites.
Chip strategy: Give up the fantasy of 'buying the dip and selling the top,' and layout in stages within the $80,000-$98,000 range, viewing the downturn as an opportunity to collect cheap chips.
Narrative anticipation: Preemptively position in tracks with substantial progress, such as RWA, DeFi compliance, and Layer 2 expansion, rather than chasing the doomsday carnival of MEME coins.
In this complex market environment, how should we grasp ourselves?
There is no market that only rises without falling, nor is there a market that only falls without rising. Looking at the longer term, in the existing economic system, risky markets must trend upward overall; it is in this back and forth that cryptocurrencies have created one wealth myth after another!
The benefit of a bear market is that the noise decreases, and the market is less restless, which formally hones trading skills or is a great opportunity for immersive investment research. Major opportunities always arise in bear markets!#加密市场回调 #美国加征关税 #BNBChain爆发
