Who Really Moves the Market?
This question has been bugging me since day one in the markets. After nearly a decade across stocks, futures, and forex, I’ve come to realize that it’s not retail, it’s not random noise. It’s fundamentals that drive price, and institutions/smart money that move in tune with those fundamentals.
If you can build an objective view of what’s driving fundamentals (key word: objective, not influenced by mainstream headlines), then chances are your bias will line up with that of the big players. From there, it’s just about timing your entries and exits — nothing more.
Now take Bitcoin for example. It’s not just individuals trading anymore — you’ve got miners, hedge funds, corporates like MicroStrategy, and now even governments. But here’s the real question — who among them is actually moving price?
You check Bitcoin charts on TradingView — Binance spot data, Binance futures, Bybit, Coinbase, etc. Which one do you trust? All of them give you partial pictures, specific to their own exchange flows. Even if Binance is the biggest, you’re still only seeing Binance positioning. The real big buys? They happen off-exchange — via OTC desks, through Bloomberg terminals. I’ve personally worked on Bloomberg and I know — you don’t see those volumes hit your charts.
That’s why, every time Saylor buys 10,000+ BTC, you don’t see a spike on volume — because it’s all done quietly, OTC.
So where do you look for the real picture? CME Bitcoin Futures. Why? Because it’s a centralized futures exchange. You get cleaner data, less noise. And the best part? CFTC’s weekly report shows you institutional vs. retail positioning. I’ve backtested — CME BTC futures data is more authentic than anything else out there.
If you’ve read till here, you’re not just scrolling, you’re serious. Now go dig into this data, form your view, and think like the pros.
