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One, Price Positioning and Long/Short Logic Validation
1. Current Status $BTC #BTC走势分析
Current price 83,500, within the 78,000 (support) - $84,500 (resistance) oscillation range mid-point;
Short-term contradiction: Price deviates from the lower band of the weekly Bollinger Band ($80,000), technical rebound demand exists;
Long-term contradiction: Monthly MACD death cross has emerged, and the downtrend may extend to Q3 2024.
2. Core Logic Reinforcement
✅ Short-term rebound drivers:
4-hour RSI oversold (value 28) + Futures short ratio 68% (short squeeze risk);
Retail investor bottom-fishing sentiment is rising, exchange stablecoin supply increases by 3% week-on-week (potential buying pressure).
❌ Long-term bearish evidence:
Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow for 5 consecutive days (BlackRock IBIT single-day outflow of $120 million);
Federal Reserve dot plot shows only one rate cut in 2024, liquidity contraction suppresses risk assets.
Two, Technical Analysis: Precisely Locating Key Levels
1. Key levels across multiple timeframes (based on current price of 83,500) Period Support Level Resistance Level Judgment Logic Short-term 80,000 84,500 Upper bound of 4-hour chart channel & dense positioning zone Medium-term 78,000 — Confirmation point for breaking the 2023 bull market trend line
Long-term $72,500 — Weekly 200EMA & institutional cost zone
2. Indicator Signal Consistency Test
Bullish divergence: Daily RSI low points rise, price low points decline, suggesting a possible rebound;
Bearish confirmation: Monthly trading volume continues to shrink, and the trend of long-term capital withdrawal remains unchanged.
Three, Strategy Deployment: Timing for Shorting on Rebounds
1. Short-term traders (1-7 days)
Short Trigger Conditions:
Price rebounded to 84,000-84,500 (resistance zone), volume shrinks;
4-hour RSI > 65 (Overbought confirmation).
Position Management:
First position 50% at 84,000, add 30% at 84,500, stop-loss at $85,200;
Target 1: 80,000 (Risk-reward ratio 3:1), Target 2: 78,000.
2. Medium to long-term investors
Position Recommendations:
Spot positions reduced to below 20%, retaining 80% stablecoins;
Regular investment paused, waiting to buy back in batches near $72,500.
Hedging Tools:
Buy put options with a strike price of $75,000 (3-month duration).
Four, Risk Warnings and Market Projections
1. Short-term rebound failure signals:
If the price falls below 80,000, it will confirm a downward continuation pattern, accelerating the drop towards 78,000;
If it breaks $84,500, stop-loss for short positions is needed, but do not chase long (weekly trend remains bearish).
2. Long-term Scenario Projection
Pessimistic Scenario (Probability 60%):
$83,500 → Rebound to $84,500 → Drop to $78,000 → Bearish breakdown below $72,500
Optimistic Scenario (Probability 40%):
$83,500 → Strong break of $84,500 → False breakout lures longs followed by a sharp drop (needs a macro black swan trigger)
Five, Data Tracking Checklist
Daily Monitoring:
Bitcoin ETF fund flow (Source: Farside Investors);
Net inflow of BTC to exchanges (Source: CryptoQuant).
Decisive Events:
Federal Reserve September interest rate decision (changes in rate cut expectations);
Mt.Gox creditor compensation progress for 150,000 BTC.
