Since becoming disheartened with following others, I feel that making money still relies on oneself. After all, even the greats can’t carry me. Back then, the person who guided my trades mainly operated$ETH , so I can only say that Ethereum is relatively friendly to me. I don’t even dare to say familiar. Just when I was preparing to operate blindly, I saw the event contract and found out that it’s just betting on high or low? This is much simpler. Bet one dollar, win eighty cents if right, lose one dollar if wrong. It’s straightforward!!
So I first placed a 10U bet to test the waters. At that time$ETH the trend was upward, so I bet upwards. I won on the first try. I felt this was much simpler than following others, so I played freely and placed a 200U bet, continuing upwards. Ten minutes later, I actually lost...
This made me a little scared. I carefully observed the trend for several hours and felt I discovered some patterns. I wrote down the prices at that time on paper, then calculated for ten minutes and judged correctly! After recording a few more times and judging correctly, I got a bit carried away, so I formally placed another 200U bet. Ten minutes later, I lost!!!!!
This is ridiculous, is this a game of rock-paper-scissors, but I have to throw first? The sunk cost has already approached 400U, and it feels like I'm almost catching up with the losses from following others. Moreover, it was just a matter of a few minutes. At this point, I'm no longer considering how much I can make; if I can break even, I will never play again. I'll try two more times. Not long after, 400U said goodbye to me again!
The double blow of following others and event contracts made me want to go downstairs to buy cigarettes. This lesson taught me that making money still relies on oneself. However, losing money comes even faster...
I am a person who loves to reflect. I carefully thought about this matter and came to the following conclusion:
Assuming EV = expected return, p = win rate, (1-p) = loss rate, under break-even conditions, EV = 0
Then EV=(p*0.8)+[(1-p)*(-1)]=0
p=1/1.8=0.556
This means that if you bet the same amount each time and play 100 times, you need to win 56 times to break even.
This matter seems easy; just how difficult is it in reality?
As long as the win rate of casinos around the world is designed at 51%, casinos can make a huge profit.
Do you think this event contract designed at 55.6% is afraid of you winning money?
Of course, some people's luck is like being blessed by the God of Wealth, which is another matter.
If you really want to play, find one with good predictions. $BNB