According to the latest data, the market shows a decline. For example, Bitcoin (BTC), which is the leading market indicator, has recorded an increase of 12.82% over the past 7 days, reaching a price of about $69,824.68 as of today. This may be due to several factors:
- Volatility after a bullish period: The market has been in a bullish phase since late 2024, fueled by institutional acceptance, approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and pro-crypto policies in the U.S. following Donald Trump’s elections. After such a rise, corrections are often observed when investors take profits. Here again, I remind you that most crypto "analysts" literally deceived themselves and their followers.
- Accumulation by whales: According to posts on X, the supply of BTC on exchanges is decreasing, while whales (wallets holding over 1000 BTC) have started buying again after a 5-month sell-off. This may be a signal for an impending recovery, but the short-term decline may be a result of market manipulation or a temporary wait-and-see.
- Macroeconomic factors: The U.S. Federal Reserve has slowed the pace of interest rate cuts, creating a more complex liquidity environment. This may have affected the appetite for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Altcoins, such as Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and meme coins (e.g., Dogecoin, Bonk, Pepe), are also likely affected by this decline, as they often follow Bitcoin's movements but with greater volatility. For example, forecasts suggest that the ETH/BTC ratio has been in a downward trend since 2022, implying that Ethereum may lag behind Bitcoin in attracting new investors.
Forecast for the second quarter of 2025 (April-June)
I rarely commit to predictions due to multiple factors; what I write can be called my personal assumption.
To analyze the second quarter, we will consider several key factors: price forecasts, market phases, regulatory and macroeconomic trends, as well as investor behavior.
1. Price forecasts and market phases
- Bitcoin (BTC): Analysis shows that Bitcoin is in an "acceleration phase" since July 2024, which historically leads to new peaks but also involves sharp corrections. According to some forecasts, Bitcoin may reach $150,000 in the first half of 2025, but other sources predict a 30% correction after an initial peak in the first quarter. This coincides with early March (02.03 - 03.03). For the second quarter, the market is expected to enter a consolidation phase, with BTC prices potentially ranging between $85,500 and $121,440.85, with the potential for a drop to $45,871.41 during a more serious correction.
- Ethereum (ETH): Ethereum is expected to trade between $1,750 and $2,050 in 2025, with the potential to reach $2,660 during strong bullish momentum. However, the second quarter may be more challenging for ETH, as the ETH/BTC ratio is under pressure, and investor interest in altcoins like Solana is stronger.
- Meme coins (Dogecoin, Bonk, Pepe): Meme coins are extremely volatile. Dogecoin may range between $0.28 and $0.44, Bonk between $0.000101 and $0.000333, while Pepe may see growth if the market recovers. However, during a market decline, these coins often fall harder – up to 60% according to some forecasts.
2. Expected trends for the second quarter
- Correction after a bullish peak: Many experts predict that the crypto market will reach an interim peak in the first quarter of 2025, followed by a correction in the summer. This coincides with historical patterns following Bitcoin halving events (the last was in April 2024), where after an initial rise, consolidation often follows. The second quarter may be a period of greater volatility, with potential declines of up to 30% for Bitcoin and up to 60% for altcoins.
- Regulatory changes: In the U.S., the adoption of stablecoin legislation is expected in 2025, which may increase their acceptance and support the market in the long run. However, stricter regulations in the EU (MiCA) may limit some projects, particularly stablecoins and altcoins, leading to a temporary decline in investor confidence.
- Macroeconomic factors: If the Federal Reserve continues its tightening policy, this may reduce market liquidity, negatively impacting cryptocurrencies. Additionally, expected inflation pressures in the U.S. (e.g., from the introduction of tariffs by the Trump administration) may direct capital towards safer assets instead of crypto.
- Institutional and retail participation: Institutional investments in Bitcoin ETFs are expected to increase, with assets under management potentially exceeding $250 billion in 2025. However, in the second quarter, we may see a temporary decrease in retail interest, as new investors attracted by the bullish market may be scared off by the correction.
3. What to expect for meme coins (Dogecoin, Bonk, Pepe)?
Since you previously asked about meme coins, I will also focus on them:
- Dogecoin (DOGE): Despite support from Elon Musk, Dogecoin is vulnerable during market declines. If the market continues to fall in April, the price may drop below $0.28. However, during a recovery, it may reach $0.44.
- Bonk (BONK): Bonk depends on community interest and interest in Solana. During a market decline, the price may fall to $0.000101, but during bullish sentiment, it may rise to $0.000333.
- Pepe (PEPE): Pepe is also highly speculative. If the market recovers, we may see growth towards new peaks, but during a correction, the decline could be significant.
4. Potential catalysts and risks
- Positive catalysts:
- Recovery of the NFT and DeFi market.
- Increase in stablecoin transactions, which will support market liquidity.
- Positive regulatory news in the U.S. that may attract new investors.
- Risks:
- Stricter regulations in Europe and other regions that may limit the growth of altcoins.
- Macroeconomic pressure, such as rising interest rates or inflation, which may reduce risk appetite.
- Technical issues in networks like Ethereum (e.g., high transaction fees in L2) that may deter users.
Conclusion and recommendations
The second quarter of 2025 is likely to be a period of correction and consolidation for the crypto market after the bullish momentum from late 2024 and early 2025. Bitcoin may see declines to $85,500 or even lower, while altcoins and meme coins may experience more serious corrections (up to 60%). However, if the market maintains its long-term bullish trend, we may see a recovery towards the end of the quarter, especially if regulatory clarity in the U.S. attracts new investors.
Recommendations:
- For investors: If you are trading meme coins like Dogecoin, Bonk, or Pepe, be prepared for high volatility. Use limit orders to minimize losses during declines, and watch for signals of recovery (e.g., increase in trading volume).
- For long-term investors: A correction may be a good buying opportunity for assets like Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies at lower prices, especially if you believe in their long-term potential.
- Monitor the market: Pay attention to macroeconomic news, especially related to interest rates and inflation, as well as regulatory developments in the U.S. and EU.
The crypto market remains highly speculative, so always invest only what you can afford to lose, and do your own research.