Key Takeaways:
SOL price surged 9.5% to $157 amid rising ETF approval odds and strong futures market activity.
Polymarket odds for a spot Solana ETF approval jumped to 91%, up from 77.5% 10 days ago.
SOL open interest is up 22% in a month, while a bull flag pattern hints at a $315 upside target.
ETF Optimism Drives Solana Surge
Solana’s native token SOL rallied 9.5% on June 16, trading around $157, up from $144 the day before. The rally was largely driven by growing speculation over spot Solana ETF approval in the U.S.
Approval odds on Polymarket surged to 91%, while Bloomberg analysts now estimate a 90% chance of approval in 2025. This optimism follows the S-1 filings from seven major asset managers, including VanEck, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and Bitwise.
Additional momentum came from Invesco and Galaxy Digital, which announced plans to launch a Solana ETF Trust in Delaware, signaling expanding institutional interest.
Futures Market Signals Institutional Inflows
The surge is also supported by record activity in Solana’s derivatives market:
Open interest (OI) reached 45.87 million SOL on June 12 — the highest in over two years.
OI remains elevated at 43.86 million SOL (≈ $6.86 billion), ranking third among all crypto assets.
The long/short ratio is skewed bullish, especially on Binance, suggesting rising confidence in further upside.
SOL Technicals: Bull Flag Targets $315
SOL’s price has formed a bull flag pattern on the daily chart — a classic bullish continuation setup. The pattern points to a potential breakout target of $315, representing a 100% gain from current levels.
To confirm the breakout, SOL must flip the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $161 into support. The daily RSI rose to 50 on June 16, up from 38 two days earlier, signaling strengthening bullish momentum.
Solana’s price is up today due to rising optimism over a spot ETF approval, coupled with a surge in institutional interest reflected in both ETF filings and derivatives market activity. If technical resistance is cleared, analysts believe SOL could rally toward $315, with long-term forecasts eyeing even higher targets.
