Susan Collins, President of the Boston Federal Reserve and a voting member of the FOMC in 2025, pointed out at a seminar on Thursday that the import tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration will significantly raise the level of inflation in the U.S., but the duration of the specific effects remains uncertain. This was Collins' first public policy statement since the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% in March.
Collins analyzed that tariffs will inevitably push prices higher in the short term, but the current assessment of their inflationary effects still has temporary characteristics. She emphasized the need to be vigilant about two risk variables: the industrial characteristics of specific tariff targets and corporate pricing strategies that may prolong price pressures. This assessment corresponds with a warning from former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn on the same day, who believes that the trade war could undermine the U.S.'s decades-long low inflation environment.
Regarding monetary policy, Collins reiterated her support for the current interest rate decisions, suggesting that in the context of both inflationary risks and economic uncertainties, the policy interest rate should remain stable while maintaining sufficient policy flexibility. The Federal Reserve's latest predictive model shows that U.S. inflation will still experience volatile adjustment cycles before 2026.
It is worth noting that the Trump administration has recently intensified trade barriers, announcing a 25% tariff on imported cars on Wednesday. Capital Economics reports that this move could lead to an indexed increase in new car prices, severely impacting the automotive industry, which accounts for 3% of GDP. Collins admitted that although the U.S. economy showed resilience at the beginning of the year, the sustainability of growth momentum faces severe testing in the context of drastic policy changes. The tariff policy is still in its early implementation stage, and its overall economic impact needs to be continuously observed.#美联储何时降息？ #区块链