Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance Against Inflation

Boston Fed President Collins pointed out on Thursday that the transmission path of new tariff policies on inflation needs to be closely monitored. As a voting member of the FOMC in 2025, she emphasized that the immediate response of import prices to tariffs may quickly transmit to the consumer end, but the specific extent of the impact remains uncertain. Although the baseline forecast indicates that inflationary pressures will appear briefly, the risks are shifting towards a more sustained upward price cycle.

Collins specifically warned that after a prolonged period of high inflation, consumer behavior patterns have deviated from traditional economic models. The latest survey shows that demand contraction and declining confidence are forming a negative feedback loop. While the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged has the support of most officials, Michigan University's 5-10 year inflation expectations have risen to the highest level since 1993.

Richmond Fed President Barkin likened the current policy environment to a "deadly fog," emphasizing that maintaining a moderately restrictive monetary policy is a prudent choice when policy visibility is extremely low. He acknowledged that new tariffs could exacerbate inflationary pressures but pointed out that the offsetting effects of tax and regulatory policies are yet to be observed. Both officials stressed that market participants are cutting back on spending due to policy uncertainty, and this self-reinforcing contraction mechanism could weaken economic growth momentum. #美联储何时降息？ #区块链