It can now be stated with certainty that the 2025 cycle has been disrupted due to the destructive impact of Trump's policies on all financial assets. We did not see growth in March and April, which means that all forecasts for the long-awaited growth of BTC and an alt-season can safely be pushed to the second half of 2025.
This will be a season supported by institutional backing, but the main liquidity will come from projects offering real value.
There is no influx of new liquidity; moreover, the coverage of Bitcoin in financial publications such as Bloomberg, WSJ, CNBC, and others has been decreasing weekly since January. Institutional investors are also still on the sidelines.
We need to look at things realistically; with a price below $110,000 for BTC, we will not see an alt-season. Bitcoin miners have also begun to sell Bitcoin more frequently as profit margins are shrinking, pressure after the halving is increasing, and network difficulty is rising.
The national financial conditions index, which tracks stress in credit, funding, and risk markets, has been tightening since February. This is also not good for risky assets.