XRP has regained almost 7% of its capital over the past ten days, coinciding with a rebound of the entire cryptocurrency market and the conclusion of Ripple's years-long dispute with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The price has once again breached the psychological barrier of $2.40; however, analysts warn that beneath the surface lies weakness — and the lack of clear buying signals may prevent the continuation of gains. The daily chart shows stabilization, but at the same time, increasing caution among investors. The price of XRP is still 30% below the multi-year peak of $3.40.

The data does not inspire optimism for XRP

In the futures market for XRP, a clear decline in engagement is visible. The total open interest on perpetual contracts remains below $4 billion — almost half of the peak from January 18, just before reaching the price record. Moreover, funding rates on these contracts hover around zero, and for most of the time, they are even negative. This means that players betting on declines (shorts) are paying their opponents to maintain positions, suggesting a bearish advantage. Meanwhile, the CVD (cumulative volume delta) indicator for the spot market remains negative, confirming the dominance of selling pressure over demand in the last two weeks.

Whales are silent, and the price is drifting

The activity of the largest players in the market — so-called whales — has remained virtually zero for over a week. Wallets containing between 1 and 10 million XRP have not shown significant movements and maintain a balance of around 5.8 billion coins. The lack of sharp buying or selling indicates smaller fluctuations in the price but also reflects a lack of conviction about the direction in which XRP will move. The market seems to be drifting, reacting more to the overall macro situation than to institutional capital movements.

Key levels and possible scenarios

If support at the $2.40 level is maintained, XRP has a chance for further consolidation in the range of $2.35–$2.50. A breakout above this zone could signal a return of buying strength. On the other hand, losing this support opens the way for testing levels from March 18 ($2.22) and the earlier low from March 11 ($1.90). In the longer term, the price could dive down to $1.76, where the 200-day moving average runs — a potentially strong demand zone. Analyst Gemxbt points out that an RSI (Relative Strength Index) of 51 and low volume activity suggest a lack of market decisiveness. As he emphasizes, breaking the boundaries of $2.35 or $2.50 could provide a clearer signal regarding the further direction.

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