Signs of easing in the Russia-Ukraine situation are emerging, and both sides are negotiating a maritime ceasefire agreement. The Russian side's request for sanctions relief may be included in the negotiation agenda. Although a comprehensive ceasefire still requires time, the reduction in geopolitical risks has already created short-term market benefits.

There are now divergences in the Federal Reserve's policy path, with some officials signaling expectations of only one rate cut before 2025. Coupled with the market consensus that the Bitcoin halving cycle is nearing its end in the second half of the year, if monetary policy easing is less than expected, the crypto market may struggle to escape the cyclical pattern of "good news turning into bad news," facing the risk of sharp corrections after a brief surge. The probability of a so-called "mad bull market" has significantly decreased.

Based on the current cyclical characteristics, it is advisable to maintain cautious expectations for the digital asset market in the second half of the year. It is essential to clearly understand the fundamental differences in the transition between bull and bear cycles—the bull to bear phase is a period prone to bull traps, while the bear to bull cycle is the golden window for strategic positioning. Only by lowering return expectations can one capture structural opportunities in a complex market environment. #美联储会议 #区块链 #币圈