美联储会议

Breaking News! The Federal Reserve's Closed-Door Meeting's 'Hawkish Voice' Shatters the Crypto Dream?!

Today's focus must be on a major piece of news! The transcript of the Federal Reserve Board's closed-door meeting has been revealed, and the signals released are very likely to upend the crypto landscape, requiring every retail investor to be highly vigilant!

During the meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell took a tough stance, stating that risks are piling up in the financial system, with high-leverage speculative funds lurking. If interest rates are carelessly lowered, it would be akin to giving money to speculators; the integrity of monetary policy must be maintained.
Vice Chairman Jefferson also emphasized that the market viewing interest rate cuts as inevitable is extremely dangerous; meeting expectations is tantamount to condoning risks. It is better to disappoint the market than to let inflation return.
Regulatory Vice Chairman Barr pointed out that small banks in the banking system harbor hidden crises regarding real estate loans; relaxing policies would accelerate leverage expansion, and both regulation and monetary policy must be strict. This series of statements undoubtedly doused the hopes of retail investors looking for interest rate cuts to boost the crypto market; in the short term, hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut are slim, and further tightening may even occur.

The crypto market has always been closely linked to monetary policy. In the past, under loose policies, a large influx of funds drove the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies soaring. But now, the Federal Reserve's tough stance means that market liquidity is unlikely to increase, and may even tighten further. With reduced capital inflows, market enthusiasm cools, and the risk of significant price corrections in cryptocurrencies has increased dramatically.

Kugler cited the shortsighted policies of Latin American countries that fell into inflation traps, emphasizing that the U.S. must maintain a hawkish stance. When inflation is high, retail investors choose cryptocurrencies to combat it; however, with the Federal Reserve's determination to control inflation and a harsher economic environment, retail risk appetite diminishes, leading funds to flow into safe assets like gold and government bonds, exacerbating capital outflow from the crypto market, making price declines a high-probability event.

The final statement from the meeting further 'sets the tone': 'Stability in the financial system requires iron discipline; the Federal Reserve will not be swayed by market clamor or political threats. We would rather endure short-term pain than lay the groundwork for long-term disaster.' This undoubtedly rings alarm bells for the crypto market; under the Federal Reserve's tough policy, the 'celebration' in the crypto space may end, and a 'cold winter' may be coming.

The crypto market is inherently full of uncertainty and risks, and the direction of Federal Reserve policy is a crucial variable.

The scythe of the special brother is faster than that of the big players! Follow me, and I will teach you how to counter the cuts! #美联储会议

Powell May Be Cautious in Jackson Hole
Economists at ANZ say that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may be more cautious at the Jackson Hole symposium and will not make a clear commitment to a timeline for easing policies. Stronger-than-expected inflation data has made some Fed officials more conservative about future policy. The bank expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the September meeting.
#美联储何时降息？ #美联储会议 #美联储取消创新活动监管计划 #加密市场回调

In the coming week, the Federal Reserve will certainly remain the focal point. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the July meeting on Thursday morning, but the real key will be the annual meeting of global central bank governors held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, from August 21 to 23, especially the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Friday. #美联储会议

【Federal Reserve may pause rate hike in September, and there are still differences on the timing of rate cuts】

According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting, #美联储会议 :

1️⃣ Interest Rate Policy: All officials agreed to maintain the current interest rate at 5.25%-5.5%, believing that inflation risks still need attention;

2️⃣ Future Trends: Most officials tend towards "maintaining high rates," with a high probability of pausing rate hikes in September;

3️⃣ Economic Expectations: Raised the GDP growth rate for 2023 to 1.8% (previously 1.0%), with the unemployment rate expected to fall to 3.9%;

4️⃣ Inflation Disagreement: Some officials warned that rising energy prices could reverse the trend of falling inflation;

5️⃣ Market Reaction: U.S. Treasury yields rose to 4.3%, and the dollar index reached a two-month high.

The inflation expectations for August released in the evening are all up, and the consumer confidence index is slightly below expectations, returning to the poor soft data state of a few months ago. This will affect market sentiment, as mentioned yesterday that the short-term will still be volatile.

The key point ahead should be next week’s global central bank annual meeting and Powell's speech, where he will discuss his views on the unexpectedly strong services data for July, the goods inflation falling short of expectations, and whether he can signal expectations for future interest rate trends.
#美联储会议 #鲍威尔

Federal Reserve's Daly: There seems to be no need for a significant rate cut ​​​#美联储何时降息？ #美联储会议

【U.S. Stock Market Closing: Three Major Indices All Rose, Golden Dragon Index Up 2%】

#美联储会议

Breaking! Federal Reserve, Major Variables! Musk is Ready to Take Action Against the Federal Reserve!

The highly anticipated Federal Reserve is about to undergo adjustments, with four chairs from the Boston Fed becoming new voting members, while four chairs from the Cleveland Fed will step down.

This could lead to more disagreements within the FOMC, with hawkish and dovish views becoming more opposed.

Musk, as a co-leader of the U.S. 'Department of Government Efficiency', openly stated on social media that 'the Federal Reserve is excessively overstaffed', sparking heated discussions in the market, with many speculating that the department he leads may take action against the Federal Reserve.

This department aims to streamline the federal government size, cut administrative expenses, and has recruited over 100 staff members, preparing to implement bold reform measures including layoffs and the cancellation of certain regulatory policies. Musk even hopes to significantly reduce the number and budget of federal agencies.

At the market level, the current outlook for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts remains the main trading line, but uncertainty is sharply rising for 2025. As investors, we not only need to cope with the possibility of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts but also face potential market turbulence brought by the Trump administration.

In the December policy meeting, as many as 15 Federal Reserve officials believed that inflation faced upward risks, prompting interest rate market traders to quickly adjust their expectations. The latest swap market data shows that traders are underpricing the possibility of rate cuts in the first half of next year, and U.S. Treasury yields have experienced an unusual rise, with the 10-year bond yield rising more than 75 basis points, and the average interest rate on 30-year mortgages increasing instead of decreasing.

Impact on Bitcoin: First, as uncertainty in interest rate policy increases, investors may push up Bitcoin prices due to safe-haven demand; second, the movement of the dollar is influenced by Federal Reserve policies, with the strength or weakness of the dollar inversely affecting Bitcoin prices; third, the market sentiment fluctuations triggered by Musk's remarks may indirectly change investors' attitudes toward Bitcoin, prompting changes in its price and activity.

#美联储会议 #比特币市场波动观察 $BTC

After the recent peak of 108350+ USD, the market has shown a clear downward trend in the first half of the past 7 days, due to the bearish impact of the hawkish statement from 85666806998 and Powell's remarks about 17016085561, dropping to a low of 92232 USD. After testing the low support twice on December 24, it rebounded, reaching a daily high of around 99958 USD. During the 69665387808 period, the US stock and futures markets were closed, likely due to most European and American traders being on holiday, resulting in reduced trading volume and relatively narrowed short-term volatility range. Recently, it has been testing the upper and lower bounds of the previous upward trend line and is also operating around the control point of the 51611130769 main chip distribution map. From the four-hour perspective, after a potential double bottom formation, it is testing the neckline resistance near 99500 USD and has pulled back. If it can break through later, it will favor an upward continuation of the rebound. The upper resistance levels are 100300 USD and 102770 USD, but if it faces pressure, it may retrace to test the lower support near 92520 USD and the previous support area around 90500 USD. Considering the recent inflow of BTC into exchanges and the historically bearish trend after Christmas, precautions can also be taken.

The Fed's 'mouthpiece' has released news: there may be rare dissent at this week's meeting! The B Circle persimmon market may face a turning point, and the showdown is about to begin, keep a close eye on Hangzhou's situation, and do not miss the opportunity!

#美联储会议

🔥The probability of 39% is not low. I have said it many times before that when the market is released, the violent bull market will begin!

100X community news:
CME data shows the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March is 39%

On February 2, according to CME Fed Watch: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 61%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 39%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged through May is 27.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 51%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 21.3%.

#CME #美联储 #美联储会议 #美联储利率 $BTC $SOL #ETH

🤔Then it’s almost time to cut interest rates!

100X community news:
Powell hints FOMC still predicts three rate cuts this year

On February 5, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s interview with “60 Minutes” was broadcast. During the interview, host Pelley asked Powell: In the Federal Reserve’s forecast last December, this year’s interest rate cut would bring interest rates to about 4.6%. Is it still possible? "These forecasts were made in December, these are the individual forecasts of the participants, this was not the committee's plan and we will update them at the March meeting," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said. I will say, though, that there's nothing in the interim that would make me think the committee would change their forecasts significantly.
#美联储利率决议 #美联储会议 #美联储降息 $BTC

Important events and data preview this week:

The Fed turns hawkish: Will there be only one interest rate cut this year? ? ?
Powell will join hands with PCE data this Friday

#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥 #美联储会议

Fed voting committee turns from dove to hawk? Bostic: Expected to cut interest rates only once this year

Although the latest dot plot from the Federal Reserve shows that Fed officials expect to cut interest rates three times this year, the differences of opinion among different officials are very obvious.

On Friday Eastern Time, Bostic, the Federal Reserve's 2024 voting committee and Atlanta Fed President, said that because U.S. inflation has not cooled as fast as expected, his expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year have dropped to one from the previous two.

The time points and some data that need attention in the past week are given as a reference for everyone! !

1. Monday: ① Data: The annualized total number of new home sales in the United States in February and the Dallas Fed business activity index in March; ② Federal Reserve Board Governor Cook delivered a speech: ③ The China Development Forum 2024 annual meeting concluded;

2. Tuesday: ①Data: U.S. city house price index annual rate on January 20 and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in March; ②Boao Forum for Asia 2024 Annual Conference held;

3. Wednesday: ① Data: US API crude oil inventory and EIA crude oil inventory, Australia February CPI, Eurozone March economic sentiment index and consumer confidence index; ② Baidu Intelligent Cloud large model application product launch conference.

4. Thursday: ① Data: UK fourth quarter current account, Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in March, Canada’s January GDP, US initial jobless claims in the week to March 23, fourth quarter real GDP annualized quarterly The final value of the rate and the final value of the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index, and the March one-year inflation rate expectation; ② Xiaomi SU7 announced pricing; ③ Federal Reserve Governor Waller gave a speech; ④ The Bank of Japan announced the summary of the January monetary policy meeting;

5. Friday: ① Data: Japan’s unemployment rate in February, France’s March CPI, the United States’ February personal expenditure monthly rate and PCE price index, the total number of oil rigs in the week to March 29; ② Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech; ③ Due to Good Friday, markets in the United States, Europe, Canada and other regions are closed for one day. CME's precious metals, U.S. oil, foreign exchange and stock index futures contracts and ICE's Brent oil futures contracts are suspended for the entire day; ④ The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will suspend currency futures and options included in derivatives holiday trading.

6. Saturday: The US CFTC releases its weekly position report.

Signs of easing in the Russia-Ukraine situation are emerging, and both sides are negotiating a maritime ceasefire agreement. The Russian side's request for sanctions relief may be included in the negotiation agenda. Although a comprehensive ceasefire still requires time, the reduction in geopolitical risks has already created short-term market benefits.

There are now divergences in the Federal Reserve's policy path, with some officials signaling expectations of only one rate cut before 2025. Coupled with the market consensus that the Bitcoin halving cycle is nearing its end in the second half of the year, if monetary policy easing is less than expected, the crypto market may struggle to escape the cyclical pattern of "good news turning into bad news," facing the risk of sharp corrections after a brief surge. The probability of a so-called "mad bull market" has significantly decreased.

Based on the current cyclical characteristics, it is advisable to maintain cautious expectations for the digital asset market in the second half of the year. It is essential to clearly understand the fundamental differences in the transition between bull and bear cycles—the bull to bear phase is a period prone to bull traps, while the bear to bull cycle is the golden window for strategic positioning. Only by lowering return expectations can one capture structural opportunities in a complex market environment. #美联储会议 #区块链 #币圈

#美联储会议 Quantitative robot is running continuously❗️❗️
$BTC

🤔In my opinion, don't cut it yet. BTC will be halved in April. It doesn't matter if the interest rate is released slowly.

100X community news:

CME data shows that the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in March has dropped to 35.5%

On February 1, according to CME Fed Observation:

The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 64.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is 35.5%.

The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged by May is 5.4%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 62.1%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 32.5%.

#美联储降息 #美联储 #美联储会议 #利率 $BTC $SOL $BNB

The balance of CEX on-site #BTC has shown a significant rebound after hitting a historical low last week. Recent data shows that the balances and capital flows of various CEX Bitcoin wallets are different, with an outflow state over the past 30 days, while in the short term, the last 7 days have shown a net inflow. The market funds are diverging, with some investors possibly selling at highs and others buying at lows.
Since December 19, the CEX on-site BTC balance has rebounded significantly, which is closely related to the drop in BTC prices following the hawkish interest rate decision on #美联储会议 last week. We speculate that this may be due to leading funds choosing to take profits and reduce holdings at relatively high levels to prevent market uncertainty, causing some selling pressure and leading to a market pullback.
Another piece of data can also help verify this, as the acceleration of BTC selling behavior over the past 30 days indicates that holding BTC is no longer the default behavior for all market participants. The short-term holder supply ratio of #长期持有者 has dropped to 3.78, the lowest level in this cycle, indicating increased trading activity in the market. #短期持有者 is more active, and the market sentiment is complex and changeable, with investors showing divergence regarding the future trend of Bitcoin.