🌞 GM... Briefing time!
📊 Outlook (UTC)
🟢 00:00-08:00 – Green ✅
US RRP up, sucking liquidity 💸 but looks like month-end balancing has started early.
Could this be leading to zero liquidity? No clue 🤷♂️, but maybe it aligns with QT slowing in April, boosting money supply instead of cutting rates.
Based on that, PBoC should inject more than it withdraws.
Remember their ¥450B MLF injection promise? Yeah… another trick? 😅 But I’m still optimistic!
🔴 09:00-11:00 – Red ❌ (Asia markets close)
🟢 12:00-15:00 – Green ✅
Durable Goods Orders down 📉
Think about it: Retail sales down, PMI crashed, consumer confidence shattered, and now tariffs? Tough times for Americans!💀
Durable Goods Orders down → DXY drops → Bitcoin should react!
🔴 16:00-18:00 – Red ❌ (Jane Street’s mischief 😈)
🔴 19:00-00:00 – Red ❌
US RRP up 💰, Kashkari hawkish → Not looking good.
I could be wrong if RRP drops or Kashkari turns dovish 🤷♂️
📉 Market Weirdness
House prices rising 📈
New home sales up 🏡💰
But consumer confidence at a 12-year LOW 🤯 What’s going on?
The rich get richer, the poor get poorer.
Who’s buying houses at sky-high interest rates? 🤔 Some invisible hands at play! RSI: 63
💡 House Prices Are a Trap!
Prices aren’t rising because of demand, they’re rising because of supply flooding the market (highest in 18 years!).
Given good theory confirmed? The more they build, the more expensive it gets!
Why? Because inflation is engineered from real estate! 🏗️💰
Now that house prices are up, the 100bps rate cut forecast is triggered.
Forget the 2% inflation target—3% is the new normal. Deflation? Dream on!
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source: @hoteliercrypto
