This time, not cutting interest rates was a difficult decision for the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve needs to choose between two mistakes
One of the mistakes is this: if you are at the Federal Reserve, your duty is to keep prices stable at low levels and maintain a healthy labor market, but tariffs have impacted both. In this situation, the Federal Reserve must make a choice: should it cut interest rates to save the slowing economy and unemployment rate, or maintain high rates to prevent significant price increases? Which mistake would you be willing to make? This is a lose-lose situation for the Federal Reserve, so they must choose the issue they believe is more concerning, which is not always obvious.
As for which mistake the Federal Reserve will choose, no answer has been given. But by the next date, "April 1st," when Trump’s global reciprocal tariffs will take effect. If it is later proven that the "reciprocal tariffs" have only a one-time effect on inflation, then the Federal Reserve might choose to cut rates to save the economy. The real risk is: if the scope of the tariffs continues to expand or the implementation period is extended, it will be difficult to distinguish whether price increases stem from tariff transmission or from the economy itself; in that case, the Federal Reserve will have to intervene.
Finally, the host asked: Before we let you go, I have one last question. Let’s get straight to the point. Will a recession happen?
This question is clever. If the answer is "yes," it means the Federal Reserve will signal a rate cut. If the answer is "no," it means the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to cut rates further.
Today's rise has actually already informed fans on March 14 that the market is about to warm up
The next strategy is about to be deployed
See the picture below
Day attention: sol, trump, pepe, doge, link, sui, apt,
