The market trend may be divided into several scenarios. There is a 50% probability of oscillation within the range of 2350 to 2600. After successfully building a bottom, it will directly surge to 3200.
If this is what will happen in the future, then slowly building a position below 2400 is a good choice.
The second scenario is that the market dips to around 2000, which has a 30% probability. In this case, we can decisively enter the market with spot trading around 2000. Of course, those with a sufficiently small position can also buy some at the bottom. We would sell around 2500 and continue holding the spot position, maintaining a healthy position ratio.
The third scenario is that the market directly takes off this week, reaching 2800, with Bitcoin hitting 110,000. This possibility is relatively small, with only a 50% probability. If we take off directly, our current spot positions will be enough for us to eat and drink well.
For the three scenarios above, the response to the first scenario is dollar-cost averaging; the longer we take to build a bottom, the lower our risk will be.
For the second scenario, we can also respond; a reasonable cash position will play a role in this situation. Buying the dip needs no explanation.
For the third scenario, it’s a direct lift-off, just enjoying the gains. It’s merely a slight reduction in profit, so please do not be greedy.
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