#美SEC加密圆桌会议

Next week’s macroeconomic focus and outlook for the '4.2 Tariff Storm' (March 24-28, 2025)

⚠️Core Logic: On April 2, Trump's 'reciprocal tariff' policy will become the biggest market risk event of the year, with impacts potentially far exceeding those of the Federal Reserve's decisions. The market is currently at the 'eve of dramatic change,' necessitating an assessment of capital trends in conjunction with key data and policy signals next week.

1️⃣ Macroeconomic Data: How do the three major indicators relate to tariff expectations?

1. Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast (Wednesday)

Function: Real-time tracking of U.S. economic growth momentum; if the forecast is below expectations (current market consensus is a final GDP value of 3.2% for Q4 2024), it could exacerbate market concerns over the impact of tariffs on economic outlook.

Relation to Tariffs: If GDPNow indicates an economic slowdown, it may force Trump to adjust the intensity of the tariff policy or strengthen expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut (current Fitch forecast is only one rate cut by the Fed this year).

2. U.S. Final GDP for Q4 2024 (Thursday)

Focus: Whether the final value revises down from the previous growth rate of 3.3%. If it is lowered, combined with tariff uncertainties, it could trigger extreme divergence between safe-haven assets (USD, gold) and risk assets (U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies).

Market Reaction: If the data is strong, it may temporarily alleviate recession anxiety, but caution is needed for the 'good news is bad news' scenario—reinforcing the Fed's wait-and-see stance and limiting the rebound space for risk assets.

3. February PCE Inflation Data (Friday)

Core Contradiction: Powell previously stated that tariffs have a 'significant impact' on inflation expectations; if PCE exceeds expectations (previous core PCE at 2.8%), it will strengthen the Fed's stance of 'higher rates for longer' and intensify market panic over stagflation.

Policy Linkage: High inflation data may be used by the Trump administration as an excuse to advance tariffs (claiming 'tariffs suppress import competition, protecting domestic prices').