Technically, $DOGE is still in a prolonged downward trend since the end of 2024. The reason may be due to the general context of the entire market. However, while the charts of other coins like $ETH , $NEAR , $SOL, XRP... are showing quite clear signs of absorption (large volume, small candle range), these signs on DOGE are very faint. So what is happening with DOGE coin??
First, let’s look at the period from mid-November to the end of December 2024. This is the period when DOGE coin had high volume and the price was compressed within a trading range that has actually shown to be the distribution structure of whales.
Since the end of 2024, the price has formed a downward trend but the volume is very low and is gradually decreasing. Even at the current time, when other coins are experiencing increasing volume (weak hands are panic selling), the volume of DOGE is still very small. This indicates that those who bought at high prices are still holding tightly and have not sold out. It sounds appealing, but if you are an impatient person, DOGE may not be the coin for you, because if weak hands do not sell, whales cannot accumulate, thus making it very difficult for the price to rise.
Looking back a bit into the past, it seems that this is a characteristic of DOGE coin, where investors often hold tightly to their coins despite negative news in the market. However, whales still have another absorption strategy, which is to use time to wear down the holders' will, causing them to slowly sell out. (Holding an asset for a long time without a price increase will make holders feel very uncomfortable and frustrated, especially when other coins start to rise in price). This will take quite a long time, but in return, the investment performance will be very high because they buy near the bottom and quickly sell close to the peak.
For example. After the whales took profits at the end of March 2024, it wasn't until November 2024 that DOGE could return to this price level. Meanwhile, some other coins like NEAR, SOL, ETH... have already returned around their previous peaks in May, meaning they only took less than 2 months. But as mentioned above, in return, the price of DOGE coin has increased significantly and is currently still at a level equivalent to the peak in March, a much better position compared to the overall market situation.
Back to the present, it seems that we are still in the early stages of an accumulation campaign, so the likelihood is high that when other coins start to rise, DOGE will remain stagnant for a long time, followed by a spectacular increase. The chart shows that this scenario completely matches the price cycle model in the Wyckoff method.
