Weekly:

Last week, a small upward candle with reduced volume was formed, without any patterns appearing, only confirming the effectiveness of the stop-loss signal from the week before last. It is hovering above the long-term upward trend line support, with a rebound in reduced volume, and is gradually approaching the upper pressure zone, so it is highly likely to continue maintaining a volatile consolidation trend.

Daily:

On March 19, a bullish engulfing pattern with increased volume was formed, attempting to break through the mid-line pressure, but was pushed down by the bears the next day. After two days of volatility, it managed to reestablish itself above the mid-line this morning, but the volume has clearly decreased (not excluding the factor of low trading volume over the weekend). It is still hovering below the 50% mark of the 78197-95152 fluctuation range, with the bears temporarily holding the advantage. However, it can be observed that the bearish volume from the two downward waves is gradually weakening, so we should observe whether the bullish volume will gradually strengthen in the future. Therefore, at this stage, the tendency is to continue maintaining volatility; it is still a rebound and has not reversed. A reversal requires a breakout with increased volume and a stable position above the descending trend line and neck line at 92000-95000.

Summary:

The trend background at the weekly level is in the mid-term of a bull market, in an adjustment cycle, pulling back to just above the recent long-term upward trend line, with only one signal indicating a stop in the volatility, and no other patterns have appeared yet, so we will observe whether any emerge in the future.

The trend at the daily level is in a downward continuation after a reversal pattern, with strong support below, extending the volatility cycle, increasing the probability of bottoming out. It has currently established itself above the mid-line, and whether it can maintain this position needs to be observed in terms of subsequent volume.

As the volatility cycle of Bitcoin and Ethereum extends, the probability of bottoming out continues to increase, and the candlestick patterns are relatively clear. Now, two points need to be clarified: first, from a technical perspective, this wave of the bull market belongs to a slow, large bull market cycle and will not be as smooth as the previous bull market. With the major trend still in place, altcoins will rise. The previous bull market also experienced such a washout cycle; it’s just that the major trend background is different, leading to different washout methods. Second, from a macro perspective on interest rate cuts, once a rate cut cycle starts, it will not stop, it will just be delayed for a while. With the changing seasons, there can still be a late spring chill. In summary, since the major trend background has not changed, patience in holding is sufficient.