$BTC

Analyze the current market situation.

Weekly:

The closing line from last week formed a moderately bullish line with noticeably reduced volume compared to previous weeks, and there are no clear signs of stagflation yet. Currently, it has risen to the first wave high point around 108364, and the MACD is showing a golden cross just above the zero axis, positioned between the upper and middle Bollinger bands. Therefore, it will continue to test historical highs and observe whether there will be adjustments or a direct breakout of the pressure zone.

Daily:

Since breaking out of the 95152 pressure zone with a morning star on May 6, a long bullish line on May 8 pushed the price above 100,000. On May 9, it closed with a bearish cross that combined into a doji, indicating a consolidation phase may begin. It is currently encountering significant resistance at the previous wave's high point. This position needs increased volume to break through. The upward trend from 74434 to 104985 lasted for 35 days with a 41% increase, so the probability of adjustment is relatively high unless there are major positive influences in the future; otherwise, it will be difficult to break through the resistance in a short time. Currently, there are no obvious signs of stagflation or reversal, and we should observe the closing situation near historical highs to increase judgment basis.

Summary:

The weekly level background is in the mid-stage of a bull market, within an adjustment cycle. Currently, it has risen to around 108364, an important pressure zone, with a probability of testing historical highs. We should observe whether it can break through the heavy pressure zone with increased volume. If it breaks through and stabilizes, it is highly likely to start a new wave of upward trends.

The daily level background indicates an upward trend. The market has broken through significant pressures and is approaching historical highs, with no clear reversal signals yet, so it may test historical highs. Observing subsequent candlesticks will increase the judgment basis.

From the closing situation on March 17, I judged that the market had stopped falling and entered a consolidation phase. Then, the market rebounded and tested lower again. On April 14, a strong stop-loss signal appeared at an important support level, enhancing the effectiveness of the stop-loss (can review posts made earlier). During this period, I have consistently suggested that if there is no position, one can buy at a low; if one is trapped in a position, they can average down; if there are no funds, then create cash flow to average down. This wave of upward movement has also validated the previous weeks' bottom signals, and moving forward, we will follow the trading plan, manage positions, and execute strategies.