Does #ETF关注 reflect market optimism?

Historical data shows that an increase in leveraged long positions does not necessarily drive up prices. For example, there were instances in July and September 2024 where leveraged positions surged but prices fell. Some large traders, although ultimately profiting, have a risk tolerance and operational capability far superior to that of ordinary investors.

Additionally, due to the relatively low cost of borrowing Bitcoin (annualized at around 3.14%), opportunities for market-neutral arbitrage are provided. For instance, the interest rate spread between spot and perpetual contracts (funding rate at 4.5%) can be profited through a 'spot + short futures' strategy, indicating that some positions may be of an arbitrage nature rather than purely bullish.

Even assuming that the $1.48 billion leveraged long position on Bitfinex is primarily a bullish setup, data from other exchanges show differing market sentiments. For example, the demand for leveraged longs on OKX significantly declined within the same 30 days, with a long-short ratio of only 15, marking the lowest in over three months.

Looking back at history, when the market is overly optimistic, OKX's long-short ratio has soared above 40 (the last time was at the end of February when BTC broke $105,000); conversely, when the ratio is below 5, it often reflects strong bearish sentiment. Although the current ratio is not extremely pessimistic, it does indicate hesitation and divergence in the market regarding Bitcoin's upward momentum.