Is a bull market coming? Key signals are emerging
Recently, the sentiment in the A-share market has quietly warmed up, with subtle signals being released from the policy side, capital side, and valuation side, leading to a gradual increase in discussions about the "starting point of the bull market."
Policy warm winds frequently blow
The July meeting set the tone for "activating the capital market," with a series of measures such as the reduction of stamp duty and optimization of the IPO pace being implemented. In August, the central bank's unexpected reserve requirement ratio cut released liquidity, and the loosening of real estate policies boosted expectations for the industry chain. The policy bottom has emerged, and market confidence is gradually building.
Capital flows are surging beneath the surface
Northbound capital ended five consecutive months of net outflow, with August seeing a counter-trend increase of over 12 billion yuan in A-shares. ETF funds continued to see net subscriptions, and the equity positions of insurance capital rose to 12.7%. The scale of industrial capital reduction has dropped to a yearly low, with the proportion of stocks below net asset value reaching an extreme value of 11.3%, often corresponding to historical bottom areas.
Stay clear-headed amidst divergence
Against the backdrop of weak economic recovery, corporate profits have not yet fully warmed up, and foreign capital flows are still disturbed by the U.S. dollar interest rate hikes. The current situation is more suitable to be defined as "structural repair" rather than a comprehensive bull market, with technological independence (semiconductors/AI), high-end manufacturing (new energy/robots), and undervalued state-owned enterprises potentially becoming the main themes.
Markets always sprout amidst doubts and end in revelry—at this moment, strategic composure is needed more than short-term speculation.
If anyone feels confused due to market fluctuations, unsure how to deal with being trapped, or feels misled during the trading process, feel free to reach out!
Evening focus: VIDT BANANA MDT VANA
