Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in June 2025, determining the fate of the United States icon🇺🇸 and cryptocurrency?

In early 2025, the U.S. financial market icon experienced a dramatic shift. The “Trump trade” boom triggered by Trump's victory last November quickly faded, replaced by the shadow of “Trump recession.” The Nasdaq icon index suffered a heavy blow, technology stocks and bank stocks plummeted, and consumer spending willingness sharply shrank.

After taking office, Trump resumed the tariff stick, imposing high tariffs on multiple countries in an attempt to reverse trade imbalances while massively cutting federal employees. These measures caused corporate costs to soar, price pressures to increase, and consumer confidence to falter. The Atlanta icon Fed predicted a slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth, and historical patterns also show that the risk window after the Federal Reserve's high interest rates has already opened.

Currently, U.S. federal debt has reached $36 trillion, and interest payments have become a heavy burden. Trump may attempt to create a recession to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in order to alleviate debt pressure. He threatened to replace the Federal Reserve chair, while Musk icon criticized monetary policy, and the Treasury Secretary stated that the economy needs to be “detoxified.”

Trump's economic advisors also proposed the idea of reshaping the dollar system, aiming to achieve dollar devaluation and the return of manufacturing through the “Mar-a-Lago Agreement,” but this may come at the cost of economic “detoxification” and actively popping bubbles.

Now, concerns about a U.S. economic recession are growing day by day, with firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan icon raising recession probabilities. Harvard icon economist Lawrence Summers icon warned that the probability of recession is nearly 50%, and inflation may return to high levels; British icon analyst Dario Perkins pointed out that a recession could leave lasting scars. Whether the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates in June and September as predicted by Barclays has become a key variable in this economic crisis, and the outcome remains full of uncertainty.