Bitcoin will continue to hit new highs!

Although it is difficult for Bitcoin to benefit from the liquidity spillover of US stocks in the short term, Bitcoin is still expected to usher in a new round of paradigm growth transformation under the dual stimulation of favorable policies and macro catalysts.

First, as US crypto regulation shifts from "suppression mode" to "strategic support", Bitcoin's position in global major assets has been unprecedentedly improved. Especially after Trump announced the establishment of a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, long-term capital such as sovereign wealth funds and pensions began to increase their allocation to Bitcoin. According to data disclosed in the SEC 13F file in the fourth quarter of 2024, Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund Mubadala purchased a Bitcoin ETF worth $437 million for the first time, the Wisconsin Pension Fund increased its Bitcoin ETF holdings from $164 million to $321 million, and the Norwegian Central Bank Investment Management Company significantly increased its holdings of MSTR and COIN in the fourth quarter, expanding its Bitcoin exposure to $370 million. According to the ratio of gold to Bitcoin market value of 10:1, the theoretical allocation ratio of global sovereign wealth funds and pension funds to Bitcoin can reach 0.1%-0.2%

Secondly, under the framework of the Mar-a-Lago agreement, the overvaluation of the US dollar has become the main obstacle to resolving debt and revitalizing the manufacturing industry. In the future, the United States is very likely to reconstruct the current world trade system and financial structure by actively devaluing the US dollar. The end of the strong cycle of the US dollar will inevitably trigger capital flows to neutral currencies such as gold and Bitcoin. According to public data, from 1985 to 1987 after the Plaza Accord was signed, the US dollar depreciated by 50% and 47% against the Japanese yen and the German mark respectively, and the gold price rose from about US$300 per ounce to about US$500, an increase of about 66%. This process has led to the reallocation of trillions of dollars in assets. The current scale of US dollar assets is tens of thousands of times that of 1985, so the hedging demand brought about by the devaluation of the US dollar will be even greater.