#事件合约 , today I want to share some indicators that are quite good for playing event contracts, besides the Bollinger Bands, which I have posted about before (see below). You can observe the golden cross and death cross of indicators like MACD, KDJ, and Vol for trading. When there's a golden cross, buy long; when there's a death cross, sell short. For a 10-minute play, watching the 3-minute and 5-minute charts is sufficient. Taking buying long as an example, when a golden cross appears on the 3-minute chart, place a long order, and when a golden cross appears on the 5-minute chart, place another long order. (Note: These indicators are very sensitive, so be sure to wait until the golden cross is fully formed before buying; don’t rush in just because it seems like it's about to form, as many times it can actually be a false signal.) The same applies to the death cross. My personal testing shows a win rate of over 60%. However, due to the frequent false signals from these indicators, I don't use them much anymore. But for friends without much skill, they can still be useful, as they have been proven effective through personal testing, which is definitely better than gambling without any knowledge. 😂

#事件合约 Today, I would like to share my thoughts on hedging with event contracts. What is hedging? It is not simply opening a long position at a low point and then opening a short position after the price rises, which would be considered a double gain. Hedging refers to the situation where, after opening your first position, you find that the market trend is contrary to your position, and at that point, you open another position that aligns with the market trend. However, the outcome? There is a 70% probability that both positions will be lost, a 20% chance of one gaining and one losing (losing a small amount but maintaining the principal), and only a 10% chance of both positions being profitable.
When is it suitable to open a hedge? Based on my practical experience, some people like to watch for golden crosses and death crosses of vol, MACD, and KDJ to play event contracts, but due to the sensitivity of these indicators, there often occur false signals, and in such cases, considering a hedge is an option. If a golden cross appears, open a long position; if a death cross appears, open a short position, and if you find it's a false signal, simply hedge. This approach may have a slightly higher win rate compared to random hedging, but it is still quite limited, and there remains a high probability of losing both positions.
Therefore, I actually do not recommend opening a hedge, as the risk-reward ratio is too poor, and the probability of successful hedging is far lower than the probability of losing both positions. Of course, I might hedge when I am overly confident, but from a rational perspective, it is certainly not advisable.