I lean toward this being a temporary relief rally for now, with a cautious eye on it evolving into something more. The rebound reflects a breather after oversold conditions (RSI nearing 30 in some analyses), not a structural shift. The lack of strong institutional inflows, lingering ETF outflows, and unresolved macro risks—like trade wars or Fed policy—suggest it’s premature to call this a sustained recovery. Historical patterns post-halving do support a longer-term bullish case (potentially peaking mid-2025), but in the short term, this feels like the market catching its breath rather than charging ahead.
That said, Bitcoin’s knack for defying expectations keeps me open-minded. If global liquidity keeps improving, or if a major catalyst (like regulatory clarity or adoption news) emerges, this could mark the start of a bigger move. For now, I’d watch price action around $90,000 and monitor whether volume and sentiment back up the rally.
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