☕️ GM, happy weekend, everyone!
Market Overview on March 15:
【Market Review】
• BTC Fluctuation Range: 82900-85300 (failed to stabilize at 85k).
• Macroeconomic Drivers: U.S. stocks closed up + U.S. government shutdown risk alleviated.
• Market Sentiment: Fear Index returned to neutral at 46 (liquidity-sensitive period: Sunday night to Monday when U.S. stocks open).
【Macroeconomic Focus】 Preview of the Federal Reserve Meeting on 3/20:
1. Policy Tone: The intensity of Powell's statements on economic recession.
2. Interest Rate Path: Whether the expectation of three rate cuts this year can continue.
3. Balance Sheet Reduction Pace: Potential slowdown/pausing possibilities.
【Strategy Suggestions】
Position Management: Maintain a neutral position (around 50%).
Breakthrough Opportunity: If the macro environment releases dovish signals + alleviation of geopolitical risks, the probability of BTC hitting 90k exceeds 60%.
Altcoin Layout: Focus on varieties that have shown signs of starting, and increase positions once the trend becomes clear.
【Technical Support】
BTC Key Levels for the Day: 82900 (Support) | 85300 (Resistance)
ETH Dynamic Range: 1850-1890 (Support Zone) | 1950 (Key Resistance)
(Note: The core trading logic for next week revolves around the Federal Reserve meeting, it is recommended to maintain flexible positions before Wednesday)