Technical and Contextual Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) - CME Futures (1D)
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well. I want to share a brief analysis of Bitcoin's behavior in the CME futures market, based on the daily chart provided to me. My goal is to offer a clear and professional technical analysis, adjusting and improving your initial perspective while integrating the current geopolitical context for a more complete view.
Since November 2024, I have observed that the price of Bitcoin broke the barrier of 74,000 dollars, a movement that generated a bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG), evidencing buyer strength at that moment. However, upon reaching levels between 105,000 and 110,000, I noticed the formation of a double top pattern, a technical signal indicating a lack of ongoing buyer interest and possible selling pressure in that resistance area. Subsequently, the price experienced a correction, leaving several bearish FVGs that reflected significant selling.
Next, I identified a new bullish FVG that formed due to an aggressive buying entry, which pushed the price up to 95,000. However, this rise was followed by a sharp decline, and then another FVG was created between 87,000 and 82,000. Currently, I am analyzing how the price remains within a range between 80,000 and 88,000, just above last season's FVG (72,000-80,000), which has already been partially filled and now acts as support.
One aspect that I find relevant is that the price remains above the 200-period moving average, an indicator that I consider key to confirming the underlying bullish trend. Additionally, I have noticed that we have recently touched the 365-period moving average, which suggests to me an additional dynamic support. Reviewing the RSI, I observe an oversold condition, which could indicate an accumulation opportunity for institutional buyers, whose activity I have detected increasing in this area.
Personally, I am positioned in spot between 90,000 and 76,000, having accumulated in dynamic support areas (DSA). I have also identified a 'last buying area' around 72,000-67,740, where I plan to make my final purchases if the market offers me that opportunity. This consolidation scenario is not new to me; I have seen it in previous cycles and it leads me to reflect on the current geopolitical context.
We are in a moment of high global uncertainty, with issues such as trade tariffs and military conflicts generating volatility in the markets. These factors could delay Bitcoin's bullish momentum, as investors tend to seek safe havens in times of instability. However, I remain optimistic. I believe that, despite these challenges, Bitcoin has the potential to reach new all-time highs in 2025, driven by factors such as institutional adoption and the impact of the 2024 halving.
I appreciate your attention and hope this analysis helps you navigate the market with greater clarity. I wish you a great day!
Thank you for reading, I hope you have a great day. Are you interested in learning more about trading, cryptocurrencies, or finance? Contact me, I will be happy to help you take your first steps or improve your knowledge. Let's grow your financial potential together!
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Hugo S Centurión
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