So, let's go step by step. Thesis one: there are no more cycles...
The first three four-year BTC cycles developed similarly:
• Year 1: Halving = year of accumulation, weak trend.
• Year 2: The following year after the halving = super bullish, setting a new ATH (12-18 months after the halving).
• Year 3: Bear market.
• Year 4: Recovery.
What do we have now?
• Year 1: (2024) Halving = ATH before the halving, super bullish.
• Year 2: (2025) If we extrapolate history = super bullish?
• Year 3: (2026) Bear market?
• Year 4: (2027) Recovery?
As we can see, there's already a significant divergence from previous years.
My theory: there are no more cycles in their usual form. BTC is in a supercycle like gold or Nasdaq. Therefore, its growth may continue in 2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, altcoins within this larger supercycle experience micro bulls and bears.
And right now, we're in a micro-bear phase (for alts and ETH). And it’s something that just needs to be waited out. It won’t last for years as it did before because BTC will soon resume its growth within its supercycle.
